Vuelta a España 2025 Stage 10 Preview & Betting Tips

Weather: Low 20˚Cs and dry, cooling as the race enters the Pyrenees.

Key climbs: The third-category Alto de las Coronas (8.3km at 4.4%) tops out with 50km to go, unlikely to be decisive. The stage ends with the first-category El Ferial Larra Belagua (9.4km at 6.3%) whose first 6km average just under 8% before easing off; final kilometre is almost flat.

Stage suits: GC contenders and strong climbers outside overall contention.

Breakaway chances: Good. The rolling start makes it difficult for pure climbers to get clear, so strong rouleur support will be crucial. Unlikely to kick off behind until going into the final climb so the break has a good chance to build up a stage winning lead.

Likely scenario: A strong group gets away that includes some strong climbers. Bahrain Victorious control the peloton, giving the break room if no GC threats are present. On the final climb, Visma Lease a Bike drive the pace and gaps could be made. Expect a two-pronged outcome: a breakaway winner, plus a GC battle behind.

Stage 10 Contenders

For the breakaway:

Juan Ayuso (7/1; 8.0) – Criticised for sitting up on stage 9 instead of helping Almeida. Announced this evening that he’s leaving UAE Team Emirates-XRG. If freed, and he certainly seems freer than he was 24 hours ago, he’s a top favourite.

Jay Vine (9/1; 10.0) – Worked hard for Almeida on Sunday. Could be allowed forward to chase mountains points and a stage win, but team dynamics may hold him back.

Marco Frigo (28/1; 29.0) – Second on stage 7. Been so close to a grand tour win, will this be his day?

David Gaudu (33/1; 34.0) – Punctured at the wrong time on stage 9 though probably wouldn’t have threatened given how it played out. Dangerous if he makes the move.

Santiago Buitrago (33/1; 34.0) – Out of GC contention, but class rider who can seize an opportunity.

Antonio Tiberi (40/1; 41.0) – Has more leeway than Buitrago but hasn’t shown much yet.

Pablo Castrillo (40/1; 41.0) – Active but may meet stronger climbers.

Harold López (50/1; 51.0) – Six minutes down on GC, so his breakaway freedom is uncertain. A danger if he’s allowed up the road.

Eddie Dunbar (50/1; 51.0) – Quiet so far after his Tour crash, but odds are tempting.

Jefferson Cepeda (66/1; 67.0) – Consistent but rarely converts into wins.

Chris Harper (66/1; 67.0) – May have to stay with O’Connor; if free, a strong option.

Andrea Bagioli (125/1; 126.0) – Lidl-Trek need a stage win; he could be their wildcard.

Markel Beloki (150/1; 151.0) – Impressive 8th on stage 9, tempting odds.

Louis Meintjes (200/1; 201.0) – Always capable but would need help to reach the break.

From the GC favourites:

Jonas Vingegaard (7/2; 4.5) – Put his rivals to the sword in a surprise attack on stage 9 and is now around 1/5 (1.20) to win the Vuelta a España. With big mountain stages at the end of the week, Visma Lease a Bike may take a more conservative approach here, but he should still end the day back in red.

Tom Pidcock (16/1; 17.0) – Took a big step forward in his grand tour career on Sunday. Can he keep it up for three weeks? Has a sprint if it comes back together and he’s still with Vingegaard.

Giulio Ciccone (20/1; 21.0) – Paid the price for chasing Vingegaard last time but still in form. Dangerous from a select group.

João Almeida (20/1; 21.0) – Is the second strongest rider in the race behind Vingegaard. The steady gradients of the final climb suit his diesel engine. Isn’t slow in a finish, should it come to that.

Stage 10 Verdict

This feels like a breakaway day, though stage 9 showed surprises can happen. Best strategy: cover a GC option and cast a wide net over the breakaway.

Stage 10 Bets

GC Saver Pick: João Almeida 1pt win, 4 places @20/1

Breakaway Bets: Marco Frigo 1pt win, 4 places @25/1; David Gaudu 1pt win, 4 places @33/1; Pablo Castrillo 1pt win, 4 places @40/1 (2nd)

Longshots: Eddie Dunbar 0.5pts win, 4 places@50/1; Markel Beloki 0.5pts win, 4 places @80/1; Andrea Bagioli 0.5pts win, 4 places @80/1

Posted 1955 BST Mon 1st Sep 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 10 Result