Vuelta a España 2025 Stage 20 Preview & Betting Tips

Weather: Mid-20°C and dry.

Key climbs: Five classified ascents, but the decisive action comes on the final two: the first-category Puerto de Navacerrada (6.9km at 7.6%), cresting with 50km to go, followed by the especial-category summit finish on Bola del Mundo (12.3km at 8.6%).

The final climb actually tops the Puerto de Navacerrada again from a different side before ramping up for the last 3km at an average of 13% (max 20%) to the Bola del Mundo. The Vuelta is likely to be decided on these brutal slopes.

Stage suits: GC favourites and elite climbers outside the GC fight.

Breakaway chances: 50/50. The stage starts with back-to-back third-category tests which should allow any decent climber with legs outside of GC contention to make the day’s break. However, given the race situation where early pressure will have to be put on Visma Lease a Bike and race leader Jonas Vingegaard, any break will need a decent lead coming to the final climb.

Likely scenario: A big break gets clear which will likely include a number of satellite riders who could be vital should attacks fly early. Vingegaard leads João Almeida in the general classification by just 44secs, so UAE Team Emirates-XRG will look to isolate him maybe as early as the Puerto de Navacerrada. Expect a final dust-up on the Bola del Mundo where the overall winner will be decided. With the podium and top-five places also still in play, the stage tilts toward a GC victory.

Stage 20 Contenders

The GC favourites:

Jonas Vingegaard (4/1; 5.0) – Can defend but may also chase a stage win. Battling a slight illness yet appears to have stronger team support than Almeida, which could prove crucial.

João Almeida (6/1; 7.0) – Couldn’t distance Vingegaard on stage 17 but clawed back 10secs in the time trial. Needs better team support but should go all-in to break the Dane.

Jai Hindley (13/2; 7.5) – Just 39secs behind Tom Pidcock in the race for the podium; likely to attack him and if not followed could take the stage.

Tom Pidcock (15/2; 8.5) – One final test to cement a breakthrough grand tour result; mainly needs to just mark Hindley.

Giulio Pellizzari (10/1; 11.0) – Impressive stage 17 winner. Could profit again if the top two stalemate, though he may sacrifice himself for Hindley.

From the breakaway:

Eddie Dunbar (18/1; 19.0) – Admits he lacks last year’s form when he won the final mountain stage from the GC group.

Jay Vine (25/1; 26.0) – Supposed to support Almeida, but UAE tactics have been unpredictable.

Mikel Landa (28/1; 29.0) – Close on the shortened stage 16 and clearly building form.

Juan Ayuso (30/1; 31.0) – Almeida could use his help, but he hasn’t shown much willingness or ability to provide it.

Egan Bernal (33/1; 34.0) – Brilliant stage 16 win capped his comeback after his horrific crash; every chance again from the break.

Santiago Buitrago (33/1; 34.0) – Underwhelming so far, partly due to early red-jersey duties for Torstein Træen, but has the class to strike.

Stage 20 Verdict

This stage leans toward a GC showdown, though race dynamics could shift if the top two mark each other out. Vingegaard doesn’t need to attack, but if he’s recovered from illness and a stage win is on offer, expect him to go for it.

From the break, the two Colombians – Bernal and Buitrago – offer attractive odds.

Stage 20 Bets

Main Pick: Jonas Vingegaard 2pts win @4/1 (1st)

Breakaway Bets: Santiago Buitrago 0.5pts win, 4 places @28/1; Egan Bernal 0.5pts win, 4 places @33/1

Posted 2238 BST Fri 12th Sep 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 20 Result