Vuelta a España 2025 Stage 15 Preview & Betting Tips

Weather: Low 20˚Cs, showery.

Key climbs: The first-category Puerto a Garganta (16.5km at 5.1%) comes straight from the flag drop and should allow those with legs and motivation to make the break. After ~40km, the second-category Alto de Barbietos (11.9km at 3.9%) provides another launchpad.

Stage suits: Climbers, puncheurs, rouleurs, and maybe even sprinters.

Breakaway chances: Very good. The tough start will make it difficult – if not impossible – for sprint teams to control a small move, so the break should be too large to bring back. The only spoiler would be if a rider around the top 10 on GC sneaks in, forcing a chase from behind.

Likely scenario: A fierce fight for the break on the first climb before Visma Lease a Bike set tempo and let the gap grow. Attacks will fly from within the move, so catching the right fuga de la fuga will be crucial. From there, we’re most likely looking at either a solo win or a reduced sprint from the break.

Stage 15 Contenders

Mads Pedersen (5/2; 3.5) – The stage looks ideal for the green jersey wearer. The opening gradients won’t trouble him though will be heavily marked in the break.

Jasper Philipsen (11/2; 6.5) – At his best, he climbs well enough to make the move. Would then benefit from teammates to help control things for a sprint.

Victor Campenaerts (20/1; 21.0) – In top form. Should handle the gradients and is wily enough to finish it off.

Nico Denz (25/1; 26.0) – Triple Giro stage winner on similar terrain. Smart rider with a decent kick if it comes to a sprint. Like Campenaerts, should be watched closely.

Orluis Aular (28/1; 29.0) – Quick finisher who’ll prefer a reduced sprint. Strong enough uphill.

Ben Turner (28/1; 29.0) – Already has a stage win. Could repeat if he’s recovered from the mountains.

Javier Romo (40/1; 41.0) – Went close on stage 12. Suits the parcours and gives Movistar an attacking option while Aular sits in.

Andrea Bagioli (40/1; 41.0) – Has been working for Ciccone, who’s now out of GC contention. Strong on short climbs and fast in a finish. Might ride for Pedersen, though.

Juan Ayuso (50/1; 51.0) – UAE Team Emirates-XRG seem intent on chasing the record for most wins in a season (HTC-Columbia’s 85 from 2009). They’ve already taken 7 of 13 Vuelta stages and sit on 80 for 2025. Ayuso may get the nod to hunt a third stage win.

Fabio Christen (50/1; 51.0) – On grand tour debut, so fatigue could be a factor. Otherwise has the right skillset.

Bruno Armirail (66/1; 67.0) – Hovering around the top 10 on GC and riding strongly. Needs to arrive solo to win.

Bob Jungels (150/1; 151.0) – Outstanding on the Angliru stage. Would prefer something hillier and might be tasked with helping teammates, but the price is big.

Marco Frigo (150/1; 151.0) – The Italian has been quiet in recent days, understandably. Prefers more climbing but could surprise at an attractive price.

Stage 15 Bets

The stage is definitely tilted towards a breakaway win, with a wide mix of rider types capable of making the front group. From there, tactics and experience will matter as much as legs.

Half the peloton are potential winners, so we need plenty going for us.

Stage 15 Bets

Main Pick: Victor Campenaerts 1pt win, 3 places @20/1

Value Bets: Nico Denz 1pt win, 3 places @25/1; Javier Romo 1pt win, 3 places @40/1

Longshots: Bruno Armirail 0.5pts win, 3 places @66/1; Bob Jungels 0.5pts win, 3 places@150/1; Marco Frigo 0.5pts win, 3 places @150/1 (3rd)

Posted 2113 BST Sat 6th Sep 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 15 Result