Vuelta a España 2025 Stage 11 Preview & Betting Tips

Weather: Hot, up to 30˚C, and dry.

Key climbs: Up and down all day with seven classified ascents but the decisive ones should be the final three – the double ascent of Alto de Vivero (4.2km at 8.3%) followed by Alto de Pike (2.3km at 8.9%) which peaks just 8km from home and contains a 400m section above 14%. Both are perfect launchpads for attacks.

Stage suits: Puncheurs, climbers, one-day specialists and GC favourites.

Breakaway chances: 50/50. Two climbs in the first 25km favour a strong move going clear. Its chances depend on how soon the racing ignites behind and whether, after attacks, there are regroupings that allow domestiques to return and the pace to stall.

Likely scenario: A decent-sized group goes up the road, with Visma | Lease a Bike taking control behind. Expect attacks within the breakaway and possibly from the favourites as early as the first ascent of the Alto del Vivero. If not, then certainly the second time up. Any gaps created on the Alto de Pike can be carried to the line. It leans slightly towards a breakaway win but depends on many factors.

Stage 11 Contenders

The GC favourites:

Jonas Vingegaard (6/1; 7.0) – In red and surprisingly punchy. Won’t get dropped from the favourites group and may even launch an attack or two himself.

Tom Pidcock (7/1; 8.0) – Explosive on short, steep climbs and an excellent descender. Has the sprint to finish it off from a small group.

Giulio Ciccone (14/1; 15.0) – Has faltered the last two stages but these climbs better suit his punchy style. Like Pidcock, is fast on the line.

João Almeida (20/1; 21.0) – Vulnerable to more explosive rivals but clearly in great form.

For the breakaway:

Juan Ayuso (12/1; 13.0) – After the abrupt news his contract will end this year, he described UAE Team Emirates-XRG as “more like a dictatorship.” Helped Almeida on stage 10 and insists he won’t quit the race. He could win, be a loyal domestique or fade completely — too unpredictable to back.

Jay Vine (22/1; 23.00) – Already a two-time stage winner and looking sharp. Keen to add mountain points, though today’s terrain isn’t his usual playground.

Santiago Buitrago (22/1; 23.0) – With Træn out of red, will get more freedom. Hasn’t shown much so far, though.

Marc Soler (25/1; 26.0) – Only 3mins 30secs down on Vingegaard. This terrain is perfect for him to stir things up.

Mikel Landa (25/1; 26.0) – Home favourite. Still easing his way back after the Giro crash. No doubt been eyeing this stage but to win is a big ask.

Mads Pedersen (33/1; 34.0) – A one-day style parcours plays to his strengths on short, punchy climbs. Possibly a touch too hard, even for him.

David Gaudu (33/1; 34.0) – Maddeningly inconsistent, but dangerous on a good day if he makes the move.

Marco Frigo (33/1; 34.0) – Tried but missed the decisive split on stage 10. Likely to roll the dice again.

Andrea Bagioli (40/1; 41.0) – Active on stage 10 before the move fizzled. Looks like he has some freedom; another Lidl-Trek card alongside Pedersen.

Eddie Dunbar (40/1; 41.0) – Quiet so far but capable of popping up with a big result. Probably not here though.

Pablo Castrillo (40/1; 41.0) – Looked set to win stage 10 before Vine came past. If recovered, he could try again.

Javier Romo (50/1; 51.0) – Excellent third place last time despite not being a pure climber. This profile suits him more.

Matteo Jorgenson (50/1; 51.0) – A strong classics rider and a useful attacking card for Visma later in the race.

Fabio Christen (100/1; 101.0) – If not used to help Pidcock, could be a lively outsider with a fast, punchy finish.

Stage 11 Verdict

This could swing either way, so once again we need to cover both scenarios: a GC win and a breakaway success. We’re looking for punchy riders with a hint of classics pedigree.

Note – there’s some extra places on offer from certain bookmakers if you shop around.

We’ve had three second places in the last four stages at 40/1, 25/1 and again at 40/1. We could do with one of these going in!

Stage 11 Bets

GC Saver: Giulio Ciccone 1pt win, 5 places @14/1 (VOID)

Breakaway Bets: Marco Frigo 1pt win, 5 places @28/1; David Gaudu 1pt win, 5 places @33/1; Andrea Bagioli 1pt win, 5 places @33/1 (VOID)

Longshots: Matteo Jorgenson 0.5pts win, 5 places @40/1; Javier Romo 0.5pts win, 5 places @50/1 (VOID)

Posted 2115 BST Tue 2nd Sep 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 11 Result

Due to protests at the end of stage 11, the race was neutralized 3km from the finish. No stage winner was declared. All bets should be VOID. Contact your bookmaker if that’s not the case.