Vuelta a España 2025 Stage 12 Preview & Betting Tips

Weather: Around 20˚C with a chance of rain.

Key climbs: The second-category climb of Puerto de Alisas (8.6km at 5.8%) starts after 23km and should be where the breakaway forms. The much tougher first-category Collada de Brenas (7km at 7.9%) tops out with 23km remaining and could well decide the stage. The middle kilometres of the Brenas average around 9.5%, with several double-digit ramps – more than enough to spark action among the GC men.

Stage suits: Climbers outside of GC contention and the GC favourites.

Breakaway chances: Good. With some big mountains coming up on Friday (L’Angliru) and Saturday (San Lorenzo and La Farrapona), GC teams may look to conserve energy rather than drive the pace, giving the breakaway a strong chance.

Likely scenario: A sizeable group goes clear on the first classified climb. Visma Lease a Bike control but allow the gap to grow. Expect some intrigue later, with strong climbers waiting for the Brenas while others try to anticipate. Most likely, the decisive move goes on the Brenas and stays away for a breakaway win. Behind, we should still see GC skirmishes and gaps open.

Stage 12 Contenders

For the breakaway:

Juan Ayuso (7/1; 8.0) – Tried on stage 11 but Visma’s pace ruined the move. Likely to try again.

Marc Soler (12/1; 13.0) – Went on a doomed raid on stage 11 but now has more freedom after losing time.

Jay Vine (16/1; 17.0) – Another UAE option who seems reluctant to ride for the leader. Has every chance of a third stage win, though fatigue may be a factor.

Santiago Buitrago (25/1; 26.0) – Animated stage 11 but was given no room. A classy climber and dangerous if in the move, though heavily marked.

Marco Frigo (28/1; 29.0) – Perhaps wisely kept a low profile on stage 11. May show his face a bit more here though there are calls, not least from the Vuelta’s technical director, Kiko García, for Israel-Premier Tech to leave the race in the interests of other riders’ safety.   

Eddie Dunbar (33/1; 34.0) – Finally showed form on stage 11. Should be active from here on.

Javier Romo (33/1; 34.0) – Third on stage 10. No reason not to try again.

Ben O’Connor (40/1; 41.0) – Struggled with a rib injury on stage 11 but at least now has freedom to chase stage wins. Capable of bouncing back.

Pablo Castrillo (40/1; 41.0) – Second behind Vine on stage 10. Likely to try again.

David Gaudu (40/1; 41.0) – Stayed in the front dozen on stage 11 when things kicked off indicating his form is still good.

Lorenzo Fortunato (100/1; 101.0) – Slipped out of GC contention. Price looks big though may have one eye on Friday and Saturday.

Markel Beloki (100/1; 101.0) – Excellent on stage 9 and tried again on home roads on stage 11. A long shot but interesting.

From the GC favourites:

Tom Pidcock (7/1; 8.0) – Denied in Bilbao but showed his climbing legs on the Alto de Pike, even dropping Vingegaard. Suited to a reduced sprint finish.

Jonas Vingegaard (16/1; 17.0) – Perhaps lost focus after the neutralisation but looked vulnerable for the first time. Decent price as a GC safety pick.

Giulio Ciccone (33/1; 34.0) – Struggled on the Vivero and Pike, suggesting form is slipping.

João Almeida (50/1; 51.0) – Big odds but tends to be caught out when attacks go. Unlikely to outclimb Vingegaard or even Pidcock it seems.

Stage 12 Verdict

Another stage that looks set up for the breakaway, though with this race’s unpredictability, a GC saver still feels essential.

UAE have a strong chance from the move – but which one? Ayuso, Vine, or Soler? He’s looked super strong all race and now has the freedom to go forward, so let’s go for Marc Soler as the main pick but throw a wide net over some others at better prices too.  

Stage 12 Bets

Main Pick: Marc Soler 2pts win @12/1

GC Saver: Jonas Vingegaard 1pt win, 3 places @16/1

Breakaway Bets: Santiago Buitrago 1pt win, 3 places @25/1; Eddie Dunbar 1pt win, 3 places @33/1; Pablo Castrillo 1pt win, 3 places @40/1; David Gaudu 1pt win, 3 places @40/1

Longshot: Markel Beloki 0.5pts win, 3 places @100/1

Posted 2245 BST Wed 3rd Sep 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 12 Result