Vuelta a España 2025 Stage 13 Preview & Betting Tips

Weather: Around 20˚C and dry at the start, cooling to ~10˚C on the climbs.

Key climbs: Two first-category ascents – Alto La Mozqueta (6.3km at 8.4%) and Alto del Cordal (5.5km at 8.8%) – before the brutal especial-category Alto de L’Angliru (12.4km at 9.7%).

The Angliru (profile above on VeloViewer) is one of the hardest climbs in cycling. Major GC time gaps will open here. While the average gradient of 9.7% already sounds savage, it doesn’t tell the full story: the opening 5km average a “mere” 7.5%, but the final 7km ramp consistently well above double digits, hitting over 20% in places, before a short 500m downhill to the line.

Stage suits: GC contenders and elite climbers outside of overall contention.

Breakaway chances: Slim. The Angliru is so unforgiving that the favourites’ pace should reel in almost anyone. Still, a strong climber in good form, free of GC duties, might survive – though a GC victory is most likely, especially given the prestige of the climb and the relatively easy day on stage 12.

Likely scenario: The flat opening 100km make it hard for climbers to get into the break, but we should still see a sizeable move with GC teams placing satellite riders up the road. Expect Visma Lease a Bike to ramp up the tempo, possibly as early as the Alto del Cordal, shredding the peloton before launching into the Angliru for an all-out GC showdown.

Stage 13 Contenders and Odds

From the GC favourites:

Jonas Vingegaard (4/6; 1.67) – The odds-on favourite. This is the stage Visma have been waiting for to distance rivals and go a long way to sealing the race.

João Almeida (13/2; 7.5) – Better suited to this long, grinding ascent than to short punchy climbs. Hopefully is given proper team support.

Tom Pidcock (11/1; 12.0) – Dropped Vingegaard on stage 11’s Alto de Pike, but this is a far sterner test. A podium in Madrid would mark him as a genuine grand tour GC player going forward. Could he even push Vingegaard for the win?

Felix Gall (25/1; 26.0) – Fluctuating form but proven durability late in grand tours. Still a podium contender.

Jai Hindley (33/1; 34.0) – Looking stronger as the race goes on, and the best option from Red Bull–Bora-hansgrohe. Giro winner pedigree.

Matthew Riccitello (50/1; 51.0) – Impressing hugely; a top-5 GC finish and white jersey look doable. The steep ramps suit his light build, though team drama doesn’t help and did take a little tumble on stage 12.

Giulio Ciccone (50/1; 51.0) – Form seems to be going backwards.

For the breakaway:

Jay Vine (18/1; 19.0) – Could sweep KOM points on the earlier climbs and still have the legs to contest the stage, though team orders may tie him to Almeida.

Juan Ayuso (28/1; 29.0) – Already has two stage wins and the form for another, but should now be fully committed to Almeida’s GC bid.

David Gaudu (50/1; 51.0) – Quiet on stage 12, maybe saving himself – or running out of gas.

Santiago Buitrago (50/1; 41.0) – Tried to follow Ayuso on stage 12 but cracked. Doesn’t look sharp enough.

Lorenzo Fortunato (50/1; 51.0) – Dropped quickly when the pace lifted on stage 12; unlikely here.

Marc Soler (66/1; 67.0) – Almost certainly on domestique duty, but never entirely predictable and will probably land a stage win at some point.

Stage 13 Verdict

Vingegaard showed rare vulnerability in Bilbao – a blip caused by the short, explosive effort, or a sign of deeper fatigue? The former seems far more likely, and the market reflects it with his short odds of 4/6.

Whilst Vingegaard looks favourite to win, Almeida possibly offers a bit more value, with the Angliru’s length playing to his strengths. Pidcock continues to impress, but Almeida should be better suited here and, purely on price, is the GC pick.

From the break, Vine and Ayuso are the only two who could realistically hold off the GC favourites, but both should sacrifice themselves for Almeida (probably!).

This stage is set to be crucial in deciding who will win the Vuelta a España 2025 – don’t miss it!

Stage 13 Bets

João Almeida 2pts win, 3 places @13/2 (1st)

Posted 2102 BST Thu 4th Sep 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 13 Result