Vuelta a España 2025 Stage 4 Preview & Betting Tips

Weather: Hot and dry, possibly reaching 30˚C.

Climbs: Three categorised climbs, all in the opening third of the stage. The third-category Puerto Exiles (5.6km at 5.6%) is followed immediately by the toughest ascent of the day, the second-category Col de Montgenèvre (8.3km at 6.1%). Riders then face the longer but shallower Col du Lautaret (13.8km at 4.3%).

Start: Just 5km before the first climb, giving every chance for a sizeable breakaway to establish.

Finish: A steady drag of around 3% for the final 8km, ending with a technical finale if the stage comes down to a sprint. Key pinch points include a fight for position into a narrowing right-hand turn at a roundabout with 2km to go, another tightening through a second roundabout immediately after, then a left-hander at 1.5km. The finale features a right-left combination inside the last 600m, before the road kicks up to the line at around 4%.

Stage suits: Climbing sprinters and opportunistic breakaway riders.

Breakaway chances: 50/50. With roughly 30km of climbing early on, it’ll be difficult for teams to keep things under control. Visma–Lease a Bike won’t mind ceding the red jersey to a non-GC threat, so it will be up to teams chasing stage wins to monitor the moves.

Likely scenario: Expect plenty of attacks on the first two climbs, with Lidl–Trek aiming to manage the break. If successful, they’ll press hard on the Lautaret to shed as many sprinters as possible before setting up a reduced-bunch sprint. Alternatively, a sizeable break could get clear and stay away.

Stage 4 Contenders

Mads Pedersen (2/1; 3.0) narrowly missed out on stage 3 but this finish suits him perfectly. Lidl–Trek haven’t had things fall their way yet, though they’ve ridden solidly. If they keep knocking, the door will surely open.

Jasper Philipsen (5/1; 6.0) sat up early on stage 3 to save energy, clearly with this stage in mind. Hanging on over the climbs will be the challenge, otherwise Alpecin–Deceuninck will face a long chase.

Ethan Vernon (8/1; 9.0) second on stage 1 and capable of surviving some climbing. If not Vernon, Israel–Premier Tech may look to Jake Stewart (66/1; 67.0) as an option from a reduced group or a breakaway.

Orluis Aular (18/1; 19.0) was a strong third on stage 1 and sixth on stage 3, though he faded slightly in the final metres. Should handle the climbs and be among the faster finishers if the race comes back together.

For the breakaway:

Nico Denz (40/1; 41.0) was active in stage 2’s move and looks to have the freedom to try again. Climbs well for a big rider and has a handy sprint for this kind of finish.

Jordan Labrosse (70/1; 71.0) looks in great form for Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale and could’ve made the frame on stage 3 with better positioning. A tougher finish would suit him more, as seen in his near-miss at the Vuelta a Burgos earlier this month, but he has a puncher’s chance from the break.

Stage 4 Bets

A tough stage to call. If the break sticks, half the peloton could be in with a shout. Mads Pedersen is favourite again but at an unbackable price considering the variables on how the stage might unfold. Instead, we’ll take small each-way plays on the two breakaway picks and hope they give it a nudge.

Nico Denz 1pt win and 3 places @40/1

Jordan Labrosse 0.5pts win and 3 places @70/1

Posted 2314 BST Mon 25th Aug 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 4 Result