Vuelta a España 2025 Stage 9 Preview & Betting Tips

Weather: Mid-20˚Cs with a chance of afternoon showers.

Key climbs: A summit finish on the first-category ascent to Valdezcaray ski station (13.2 km at 5%). The steepest section comes at the bottom, with the opening 3km averaging around 7.5%, before the gradient eases significantly towards the top.

Stage suits: Climbers outside of GC contention.

Breakaway chances: High. The final climb doesn’t look selective enough to create major GC gaps, so the breakaway should be allowed to fight for the win. The rolling start favours strong rouleurs, but the winner will need to be a solid climber – and possibly a fast finisher if a small group arrives together.

Likely scenario: A sizeable breakaway forms, and provided no GC threats are present, it should contest the stage. The stronger climbers will likely try to attack on the steeper lower slopes of Valdezcaray, while others may hang on for a sprint or anticipate before the climb begins. Behind, the GC riders may test each other, but meaningful time gaps look unlikely.

Stage 9 Contenders

For the breakaway:

Juan Ayuso (7/1; 8.0) – Intentionally lost time on stage 8 to give himself freedom for the break. Would be a major favourite if he makes it in.

Jay Vine (8/1; 9.0) – Stage 6 winner and another strong option for UAE Team Emirates-XRG. Helped Ayuso on stage 7, but if given his chance, Vine could consolidate his mountains jersey lead.

Antonio Tiberi (22/1; 23.0) – Surprisingly lost significant time on stage 7 without a clear reason. Now has freedom to attack, and as a former GC hopeful, he’d be dangerous in the break.

David Gaudu (25/1; 26.0) – Finished with Tiberi on stage 7, effectively ending his GC bid. Might need a big rouleur like Stefan Küng to help him get into the break. Has a useful kick if needed.

Marco Frigo (28/1; 29.0) – Rode strongly in the stage 7 break but was unlucky to be up against a resurgent Ayuso. Still knocking on the door of a Grand Tour stage win.

Pablo Castrillo (28/1; 29.0) – Active in the stage 6 break, repeatedly trying to go clear, but eventually cracked. Could try again.

Javier Romo (40/1; 41.0) – Winner at the Tour Down Under earlier this year. Along with Castrillo, another solid option for Movistar. Nearly made the stage 7 break before being reeled in.

Eddie Dunbar (40/1; 41.0) – Has ridden conservatively so far, lurking at the back. Likely building form for bigger mountain stages, but not to be discounted here.

Chris Harper (50/1; 51.0) – Mostly riding in support of Ben O’Connor, but as a Giro stage winner, could be granted some freedom.

Léo Bisiaux (66/1; 67.0) – Hasn’t shown much yet despite coming in with strong form. Still time to make an impact.

Bruno Armirail (80/1; 81.0) – Not a pure climber but consistently finishes better than expected. Suited by the rolling start but would probably have to anticipate the final climb and arrive solo.  

Kevin Vermaerke (80/1; 81.0) – Impressive earlier this month in Norway. Could take this chance to show UAE Team Emirates-XRG – his team next year – what’s to come.

Fabio Christen (100/1; 101.0) – A punchy rider who can handle hills and packs a quick finish. If he survives the steep early slopes, he’s a real danger in a small-group sprint.

From the GC favourites:

Jonas Vingegaard (11/2; 6.5) – Odds feel a little short given the variables and the relatively gentle nature of the final climb.

Tom Pidcock (25/1; 26.0) – Q36.5 are one of the few GC teams that might actively chase a stage win. Should survive the early steep ramps and would likely have the fastest sprint from a reduced group.

Giulio Ciccone (22/1; 23.0) – Lidl-Trek too could try to set up a Ciccone attack on the lower slopes. Would then have every chance in a reduced group sprint, especially if he’s dropped Pidcock.  

Stage 9 Verdict

The breakaway remains the most likely source of the winner, but nothing is guaranteed – race dynamics can be unpredictable. With the rest day looming, GC squads may feel less need to conserve energy. So, we’ll go with some break options, but a GC saver too just in case.

Stage 9 Bets

GC Saver Bet: Tom Pidcock 1pt win and 3 places @25/1 (2nd)

Breakaway Picks: David Gaudu 1pt win and 3 places @25/1; Javier Romo 1pt win and 3 places @40/1

Longshots: Bruno Armirail 0.5pts win and 3 places @80/1; Fabio Christen 0.5pts win and 3 places @100/1

Posted 2116 BST Sat 30th Aug 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 9 Test