Vuelta a España 2025 Stage 19 Preview & Betting Tips

Weather: Mid-20°C and dry.

Key climbs: None classified.

Stage suits: Sprinters, rouleurs, and opportunistic breakaway riders.

Finish: The final 3km are relatively straight, with a steady rise averaging about 3% (max 5.5%).

Breakaway chances: 50/50. We’ve often seen late-grand tour stages like this – profiles that appear set for a sprint but flip to favour the break. Many teams are still chasing a win and will be desperate to send riders up the road. Combined with peloton fatigue, the breakaway has a real shot. The early terrain favours strong rouleurs.

Likely scenario: We’ll know early which way it’s heading: if the sprint teams start jumping into the break rather than policing the front, expect a breakaway victory; otherwise, a bunch sprint.

Stage 19 Contenders

For a bunch sprint:

Jasper Philipsen (7/4; 2.75) – Two-time stage winner and the quickest sprinter here by a margin, though the uphill drag levels the field somewhat. If he’s recovered well from the mountains, he’s the clear favourite.

Mads Pedersen (7/2; 4.5) – Brilliant breakaway win on stage 15 but has battled illness and eased off in Thursday’s time trial. Could try the break again yet remains dangerous on an uphill sprint.

Ben Turner (11/2; 6.5) – Ineos Grenadiers already have three stage wins, including Turner’s own on a similar uphill finish in week one. They can hedge: get a man in the break or back Turner if it regroups.

Ethan Vernon (10/1; 11.0) – Twice runner-up and possesses serious top-end speed, though recent team controversy may be a distraction.

Orluis Aular (22/1; 23.0) – Runner-up to Pedersen from the stage 15 break. The finish suits him and will be targeting this day.

For the breakaway (including the sprinters above):

Nico Denz (33/1; 34.0) – A specialist in late-grand tour break wins and crafty enough to finish it off.

Jenthe Biermans (40/1; 41.0) – Quiet Vuelta so far but a strong engine who could exploit a weary peloton; quick if it comes down to a sprint.

Ivo Oliveira (60/1; 61.0) – UAE Team Emirates-XRG are hunting every stage; Oliveira is their best card here.

Stefan Küng (100/1; 101.0) – Hurt by the shortened time trial but the early rolling terrain suits him. Likely needs a solo move.

Bruno Armirail (250/1; 251.0) – Fourth in the time trial shows form. Like Küng, he’ll probably need to finish alone.

Stage 19 Verdict

Philipsen remains the standout for a bunch finish; 7/4 is appealing if Alpecin-Deceuninck commit to controlling the race. However, Aular is well suited to the finale and offers a bit more value at bigger odds.

It’s worth holding a couple of breakaway tickets as well – Denz and Oliveira look the most tempting at current prices.

Stage 19 Bets

Main Pick: Orluis Aular 1pt win, 3 places @22/1 (3rd)

Breakaway Bets: Nico Denz 0.5pts win, 3 places @33/1; Ivo Oliveira 0.5pts win, 3 places @60/1

Posted 2051 BST Thu 11th Sep 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 19 Result