Vuelta a España 2025 Stage 14 Preview & Betting Tips

Weather: Warm – mid-to-high 20s°C and dry, cooling as the race climbs higher.

Key climbs: Two brutal first-category ascents to cap a short but intense stage – the Puerto de San Lorenzo (10.1km at 8.5%), with its final 5km averaging over 10.5%, and La Farrapona (16.9km at 5.9%), which starts steadily before ramping up to a punishing final 6km at nearly 9%. Each would be decisive on its own; back-to-back, they could tear the field apart.

Stage suits: GC favourites and pure climbers outside overall contention.

Breakaway chances: Slim, though greater than stage 13. The combination of a short distance (136km) and two major climbs at the end tilts the balance towards a GC win. That said, the early rolling terrain offers scope for a strong breakaway to form, and if the peloton doesn’t chase hard before the climbs, they could survive. Many will also keep one eye on Sunday, which looks tailor-made for the break.

Likely scenario: A sizeable break goes clear before Visma Lease a Bike set tempo at the front. After expending huge effort on Friday and with UAE Team Emirates-XRG showing surprising strength on the Angliru, Visma may be more cautious here. Indeed, UAE as the ones that need to attack may be the ones to ride. Either way, Visma or UAE are likely to drive hard on the San Lorenzo to thin the peloton, setting up a decisive battle on La Farrapona — likely also for the stage win.

Stage 14 Contenders

From the GC favourites:

Jonas Vingegaard (13/8; 2.62) – Never looked like coming round Almeida on the Angliru and seemed at his limit. A bigger price than on stage 13 and now slightly on the back foot.

João Almeida (11/2; 6.5) – Stunning ride to win on the Angliru. Long, grinding climbs suit him perfectly; his steady, relentless pacing is a weapon few can live with. UAE did a brilliant job on stage 13; a repeat performance here will put real pressure on Vingegaard.

Tom Pidcock (20/1; 21.0) – Recovered well when he seemed set to lose big time. Still third overall, but a step below the front two on long, sustained climbs.

Jai Hindley (22/1; 23.0) – Growing stronger by the day and surely eyeing the podium in Madrid. May even put his team to work early to try to drop Pidcock.

Felix Gall (50/1; 51.0) – Dropped early on the Angliru but rallied to finish strongly. Known for closing out grand tours well and could yet target the podium. Odds look generous, though a place is more likely than a win.

For the breakaway:

Juan Ayuso (9/1; 10.0) – Sat up early again. Could either ride in support of Almeida or be unleashed up the road, who knows?

Jay Vine (12/1; 13.0) – Outstanding in his domestique role for Almeida, but the team may keep him tied to GC duties now.

Marc Soler (28/1; 29.0) – Quieter than usual on stage 13, but may get freedom here, especially on a finish he’s shone on before.

Santiago Buitrago (40/1; 41.0) – Outpaced by Ayuso on stage 12, but a classy operator who can never be written off.

Harold Tejada (40/1; 41.0) – 11th on the Angliru shows his form. Aggressive in breakaways and already 4th on stage 7. Rarely wins, but always dangerous.

Javier Romo (40/1; 41.0) – Runner-up on stage 12, the only rider able to follow Ayuso. Sunday suits him better, but his legs are clearly excellent.

Eddie Dunbar (50/1; 51.0) – Form is trending upward. One to keep faith with – could strike big on a mountain stage.

Mikel Landa (66/1; 67.0) – Classy climber building condition, though still troubled by back pain (as shown in Bilbao).

David Gaudu (66/1; 67.0) – Won here in 2020 (from the break, outsprinting Soler). Odds look huge if he can rediscover that form. Been a stage pick several times and disappointed which is off-putting.

Brieuc Rolland (80/1; 81.0) – In tears after just missing out on stage 12. Perhaps the better option ahead of Gaudu for Groupama-FDJ.  

Antonio Tiberi (80/1; 81.0) – Unlucky in the break on stage 13 with first a mechanical then a fall when chasing back on. Hasn’t shown winning form yet, but far too talented to dismiss.

Abel Balderstone (80/1; 81.0) – Superb 10th on the Angliru underlined his climbing talent. If recovered, the Spanish TT champion would be one of the best climbers if up the road.

Markel Beloki (80/1; 81.0) – Among the chasers behind Ayuso and Romo on stage 12. Climbing strongly and likely to try again.

Stage 14 Verdict

A GC win looks the most likely outcome, though not as certain as on the Angliru. Almeida was the strongest there but couldn’t quite drop Vingegaard. There’s clearly little between them, and if they arrive together, the uphill sprint just about favours the Dane. Still, at the prices, it’s worth siding with Almeida again.

From the break, Buitrago at 40s and Dunbar at 50s are tempting but let’s keep them in reserve for Sunday and the final week.

Should be another cracker of a stage – enjoy!

Stage 14 Bets

João Almeida 1pt win, 3 places @11/2 (3rd)

Posted 2139 BST Fri 5th Sep 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 14 Result