Vuelta a España 2025 Stage 1 Preview & Betting Tips

Weather: Pleasant, dry conditions with temperatures in the mid-20s °C.

Climbs: Just the one third-category climb (6.4km at 5.3%) which won’t affect the outcome of the stage but will allow the breakaway riders to fight for the first blue polka dot mountains jersey.  

Start: Flat, but we shouldn’t see much of a fight for the breakaway in any case.

Finish: Three roundabouts inside the final 2.5km will string the peloton out and sprinters will need to be positioned handily. The road curves to the right inside the last 500m, creating a slightly blind but otherwise wide and flat finale.

Stage suits: Sprinters.

Breakaway chances: Opportunities for sprinters are few and far between in this Vuelta and given the stage winner will wear the first red jersey, the chances of a breakaway win are pretty much zero.

What will happen: Expect a small breakaway kept on a short leash by the sprint teams, before the race inevitably comes back together for a bunch sprint.

Stage 1 Contenders

Jasper Philipsen (11/10; 2.10) won the opening stage of this year’s Tour de France before a nasty crash on stage 3 saw him leave the race early. He made his return to racing at the Tour of Denmark with a fourth-place finish on the only flat stage of the race having found himself a bit too far back inside the last kilometre. That was followed by another fourth on a more demanding parcours in the Hamburg Cyclassics – a very exciting finish where Rory Townsend managed to hold off the peloton on the line. So there are question marks around Philipsen’s form but he is the standout fast man on the Vuelta startlist. No Mathieu van der Poel, but Jonas Rickaert and Edward Planckaert provide a dependable leadout for Alpecin-Deceuninck.

Mads Pedersen (9/2; 5.5) was on great form at the Tour of Denmark, winning three stages, including a ridiculous 80km solo hit-out on stage 4, as well as the overall. He’s up against stiffer opposition here of course but has the terrain for multiple wins in a similar way that he delivered at the Giro d’Italia earlier in the year. Though Philipsen usually has the edge in pure speed on a flat finish, Pedersen’s current condition could put him in contention.

Casper van Uden (15/2; 8.5) won the first sprint stage of the Giro d’Italia at 33/1 with a bit of an ambush leadout and early launch but hasn’t backed that up in his starts since. Team Picnic PostNL have quite an inexperienced team and their build-up has been disrupted following the late withdrawal of British climber and GC hopeful, Max Poole, after contracting the Epstein-Barr virus.

Ethan Vernon (9/1; 10.0) took an impressive win at the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya back in March and was a bit unlucky in traffic when carrying plenty of speed on the opening stage of the Tour de Pologne at the start of the month. Fellow Brit, Jake Stewart (50/1; 51.0), will provide the leadout and is fast in his own right. If things fall for him, Vernon isn’t without a chance to spring a surprise.

Stanisław Aniołkowski (18/1; 19.0) was in the mix during the Tour de Pologne and did go close at last year’s Giro, but a win would be a surprise for a Cofidis team desperate for some good results. Another option is Bryan Coquard (50/1; 51.0) who had, let’s say, an eventful Tour de France – unintentionally causing the crash that took out Philipsen (and harshly earning a yellow card), somersaulting over his bike in a crash later in the same stage and then finally breaking a finger collecting a feed bag on stage 12 which resulted in him leaving the race. Better luck this time round hopefully for ‘Le Coq’ but will likely be the chosen man on the tougher, uphill finishes.  

Madis Mihkels (22/1; 23.0) was well positioned on the opening stage of the Tour de Pologne before losing his back wheel and colliding with a couple of riders as he struggled to clip back in, ultimately doing well to finish in 12th. The young Estonian champion looks progressive and should be in contention on hillier stages as well as the flat ones. Similar to Picnic PostNL, EF Education EasyPost have had to redirect their focus after the non-selection of Richard Carapaz due to the gastro infection that forced the Ecuadorian out of the Tour de France.  

Stage 1 Bets

This year’s Vuelta offers very few flat finishes (stages 1, 8, 19, and 21 are the only likely bunch sprints), which explains the absence of many top sprinters. Jasper Philipsen is the only rider who can truly claim elite status. That said, the scarcity of opportunities opens the door for second-tier sprinters to chase a career-defining victory.

All things being equal, Philipsen should put this field behind him but could be vulnerable given his lack of racing whilst Mads Pedersen is the form man but probably isn’t the quickest on a flat finish.

To be fair, the 11/10 available on Philipsen is generous enough and probably the smart pick. But instead let’s take the extra place available on Ethan Vernon who appeals at a bigger price and could catch the Belgian cold.

Ethan Vernon 1pt and 4 places @8/1 (2nd)

Posted 2138 BST Fri 22nd Aug 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 1 Result