Vuelta a España 2025 Stage 7 Preview & Betting Tips

Weather: Showers are possible, with cool conditions around 13˚C on the climbs.

Key climbs: Four classified climbs starting with the first-category Port del Cantó (24.7km at 4.4%). A long descent and valley road take the riders to the second-category climbs of Puerto de la Creu de Perves (5.7km at 6.3%) and Coll de l’Espina (7.1km at 5.5%), before the first-category summit finish at the ski resort of Cerler (12.1km at 5.8%).

Race dynamics: The long opening climb should allow a strong breakaway of good climbers to form. The final ascent to Cerler is tougher than the finish at Pal on stage 6, rising in steep steps. The first 4km average a brutal 10.5% before easing slightly, followed by another kilometre in double digits. After a short dip, 2km at around 6% lead into a final flattening stretch to the line. The irregular profile offers plenty of opportunities for attacks, and gaps between the GC contenders look inevitable.

Stage suits: GC favourites and climbing specialists.

Breakaway chances: 50/50. Bahrain-Victorious may ride to defend the red jersey if a threat is up the road. After a relatively calm day on stage 6, Visma Lease a Bike may also look to turn the screw, especially after UAE Team Emirates-XRG lost Juan Ayuso as a GC contender. Both scenarios would probably doom the break. That said, it should be full of strong climbers, which gives it a fighting chance to stay away.

Likely scenario: Bahrain-Victorious will try to police a break with no GC threats, but that won’t be easy on such a tough opening climb. Moreover, they need to hold some resources back to help their GC hopefuls – Antonio Tiberi and Santiago Buitrago. Visma Lease a Bike will likely take over before the final climb to set up a Jonas Vingegaard attack, which this time could well be for a stage win.

Stage 7 Contenders

From the GC favourites:

Jonas Vingegaard (6/4; 2.5) – The hot favourite with the bookies. Looked sharp on stage 6 and the steeper gradients here should suit him better.

Giulio Ciccone (12/1; 13.0) – Attacked strongly on stage 6 and could be a genuine GC contender if he maintains form.

João Almeida (12/1; 13.0) – Now UAE’s GC leader after Ayuso’s collapse. Yo-yoed back and forward on stage 6, as he tends to do, but finished very strongly.

Egan Bernal (66/1; 67.0) – Followed well on stage 6 and may be a little overpriced, though you’re probably only playing for a place.

Potential breakaway threats:

Jay Vine (12/1; 13.0) – Won stage 6 and has doubled up at the Vuelta before.

Marc Soler (40/1; 41.0) – Strong form, though team duties for Almeida could hold him back.

Juan Ayuso (40/1; 41.0) – A third option for UAE but needs a dramatic recovery after struggling badly on stage 6.

Eddie Dunbar (33/1; 34.0) – Lost time but could be targeting breakaway freedom. Dangerous if back to Tour de France form.

Chris Harper (40/1; 41.0) – Another solid breakaway option for Jayco AlUla, though may ride in support of O’Connor.

Marco Frigo (40/1; 41.0) – Worked hard on stage 6 but would be a weapon if given the chance to ride for himself. Could win one for teammate Chris Froome, whose career looks over after a serious training crash in France.

Léo Bisiaux (50/1; 51.0) – Wasn’t in the break on stage 6 but should try again here to make the most of his good form coming in.

Stage 7 Verdict

Jonas Vingegaard is the strong favourite in the Vuelta stage 7 odds, but the price is somewhat restrictive, and it’s not entirely clear all of his GC rivals will be dropped. If a small group comes to the line, Giulio Ciccone should be the fastest and offers a bit more value.

Let’s have a few for the break too, just in case.

Stage 7 Bets

Main Pick: Giulio Ciccone 1pt win and 3 places @12/1

Breakaway Bets: Eddie Dunbar 0.5pt win and 3 places @33/1; Marco Frigo 0.5pts win and 3 places @40/1 (2nd) ; Léo Bisiaux 0.5pts win and 3 places @50/1

Posted 2206 BST Thu 28th Aug 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 7 Result