Vuelta a España 2025 Stage 3 Preview & Betting Tips

Weather: Brighter than Sunday, with no rain forecast and temperatures rising into the mid-20˚Cs.

Climbs: The stage features a second-category climb (5.5km at 6.5%) at its midpoint, followed by a couple of unclassified rises, before the final fourth-category ascent (2.6km at 3.6%) to the line.

Start: Rising ground for the first 7km should reveal whether there’s a serious appetite for a breakaway and which teams are prepared to control the race.

Finish: The climb to Ceres begins steadily at around 3%, flattens out, then kicks up again in the final 1.5km – but never into truly selective territory. Three hairpin bends inside the final kilometre will make positioning crucial for anyone targeting the win.

Stage suits: Sprinters who can handle short climbs, fast-finishing climbers, and puncheurs.

Breakaway chances: Below 50%. While the terrain does offer the opportunity for a strong move to go clear, much will depend on whether teams – particularly Lidl-Trek – decide to police and contain the action.

Likely scenario: Lidl-Trek to control the break, maintain a strong tempo to shed some of the purer sprinters, and set up Mads Pedersen for a reduced-bunch sprint.

Stage 3 Contenders

Mads Pedersen (4/6; 1.67) arrives in top form after three stage wins and the overall at the Tour of Denmark. Disappointed not to feature on stage 1, and Lidl-Trek narrowly missed out with Giulio Ciccone on stage 2. This terrain suits him perfectly and he starts as the clear favourite.

Jasper Philipsen (15/2; 8.5) won the opening stage and, even if not at his absolute best, his climbing ability shouldn’t be underestimated. For Pedersen to prevail, Lidl-Trek will need either to drop him or at least sap his legs before the final sprint. Otherwise, the Alpecin-Deceuninck sprinter could strike again.

Ethan Vernon (16/1; 17.0) is durable enough for this type of stage, though teammate Jake Stewart (125/1; 126.0) might offer Israel–Premier Tech a stronger option at long odds.

Orluis Aular (20/1; 21.0) proved at the Giro that he’s very unlikely to be dropped on this kind of terrain and has a sprint to challenge. Iván García Cortina (50/1; 51.0) offers Movistar another strong option, both he and Aular finished in the top 5 on stage 1.

Axel Zingle (25/1; 26.0) would normally be well-suited to this finish, but after dislocating his shoulder in the stage 2 crash – even if he seemed fine afterwards – he’s a risky pick.

Tom Pidcock (28/1; 29.0) said he lacked the legs on stage 2, but given he also collided with a post in the same crash as Zingle and Vingegaard, that’s no surprise. He looked sharp in stage 1’s sprint and should find this uphill finish more to his liking.

Ben Turner (33/1; 34.0) took a controversial win in Poland earlier this month (capitalising on a neutralisation after being dropped) but backed it up with a couple of podiums on uphill finishes. Expect him to be in the mix for a top 5 or better here.

Stage 3 Bets

Although Mads Pedersen is clearly the most likely winner, his price offers little value. At bigger odds, both Orluis Aular and Ben Turner catch the eye – with preference for the Venezuelan – while Jake Stewart looks worth a small each-way nibble at huge odds.

Orluis Aular 1pt win and 3 places @20/1

Jake Stewart 0.5pts win and 3 places @125/1

Posted 2058 BST Sun 24th Aug 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 3 Result