Tour de France 2025

Weather: The riders will be lucky to avoid showers which could make the city streets treacherous.

Stage Type: Designated flat, but not really.

Climbs: Five fourth-category climbs but it’ll be the three passes up the tight, cobbled streets of Montmartre (1.1km at 5.9%) that will decide how the stage plays out.

Start: Up the fourth-category Côte de Bazemont (1.7km at 7%) which ordinarily would be an attack point for breakaway riders though we’ll probably see the usual go-slow until Paris to allow for pictures and wotnot.

Finish: The final pass up the Montmartre climb peaks with just 6km to go and descends all the way to the finish on the Champs-Élysées allowing little time for dropped riders to get back on.

Stage suits: Sprinters who can climb, puncheurs, rouleurs and maybe even GC contenders. Anyone who still has the energy and motivation, basically.

Breakaway chances: Below 50/50. There should be a sufficient number of teams who fancy their chances on this, albeit altered, Champs-Élysées finish but, given the fatigue in the peloton, if enough strong men get up the road, they’ll be difficult to bring back.

What will happen: Tricky to call, but most likely attacks over the final ascent in Montmartre will produce a selection that will come to the line together for a reduced bunch sprint.

Stage 21 Contenders

Wout van Aert (8/1; 9.0) admitted he lacked the legs to make the break on stage 20, but they still look better than most and this is a great chance for Visma Lease a Bike to end the race on a high.  

Kaden Groves (14/1; 15.0) can challenge again on a perfect finish for him if he can recover physically and come down from the high of winning stage 20.

Lidl-Trek will try to keep things together for Jonathon Milan (8/1; 9.0) but may be wise to give options to Quinn Simmons (33/1; 34.0) and Thibau Nys (40/1; 41.0), who seems to be getting involved in the race a bit more since his crash on the opening day, albeit a tad late.

Jordi Meeus (16/1; 17.0) can get over a climb and sprint, and of course already has a win to his name on the Champs-Élysées.

Axel Laurance (40/1; 41.0) has been prominent without managing to catch the right moves but has a kick uphill and a fast finish that should put him in the mix here.

It’s a perilous thing to back a rider from the Tour winning team to take the final stage as they could be demob happy and not even compete for it. But Tadej Pogačar (11/2; 6.5) has indicated he might give it a nudge even though gut instinct says he won’t be taking any risks, especially if it’s wet. Otherwise, it’s a great finish for Jhonatan Narváez (33/1; 34.0), Tim Wellens (80/1; 81.0) still seems to have better legs than anyone, and who knows what Marc Soler (750/1; 751.0) will do.

For the breakaway:

The usual strong rouleurs should be feared – Jonas Abrahamsen (33/1; 34.0), Victor Campenaerts (40/1; 41.0), Kasper Asgreen (66/1; 67.0) and Pascal Eenkhoorn (150/1, 151.0)

Stage 21 Bets

Even though he’s not on top form, it’s difficult to imagine Wout van Aert not being in the mix. With similar characteristics, Axel Laurance has been a bit unlucky but still seems to have good legs. And just in case, let’s have a breakaway saver at big odds.

Wout van Aert 2pts win @8/1 - 1st

Axel Laurance 1pt win and 3 places @40/1

Pascal Eenkhoorn 0.5pts win and 3 places @150/1

Posted 2258 BST Sat 26th July

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Ended with a winner. Final score: 76.5pts staked; -8.37 P/L (-10.9%)

Running total for the year: 176.0pts stakes; +14.6pts P/L (+8.3%)

It’s been a frustrating Tour from a betting perspective, and we’ve hit the post far too many times, none more so than with Van den Broek and Sweeny at big odds on stage 20. But never mind, hope you’ve enjoyed reading the previews anyway – many thanks, it’s much appreciated. Back for the Vuelta!

Stage 21 Result