Tour de France 2025

Weather: Warm – in the mid-20˚Cs – and dry with a gentle north-westerly breeze.

Stage Type: Designated Flat, but plenty of bumps along the way.

Climbs: Five classified climbs, three of which come in the final 40km, that are all short, punchy efforts.

Start: Flat until a fourth-category climb (1.4km at 6.6%) 25km out which might help the break form.

Finish: The double-digit gradient Côte de Pech David (0.8km at 12.0%, max. 18%) peaks with less than 9km to go and is a perfect launchpad for attacks.

Stage suits: Sprinters who can climb and puncheurs.

Breakaway chances: Decent as the lumpy stuff at the end will dissuade the pure sprinter teams from controlling. Though there ought to be enough other teams who like the look of the final to ride and at just over 150km is relatively short to control.

What will happen: It depends on the size and strength of the break but on balance it should come back together, and we’ll see attacks on the final climb leading to a reduced bunch sprint.

Stage 11 Contenders

Mathieu van der Poel (9/2; 5.5) came up agonisingly short on stage 9 despite looking very leggy at the backend of a very tough week. And this one is made for him – a sharp climb where he’s sure to make the selection and likely to be one of the quickest left on the line. Kaden Groves (18/1; 19.0) is another option for Alpecin-Deceuninck should he stay in the front group or get back on.

Wout van Aert (6/1; 7.0) will no doubt win a stage before the tour is done and why not this one? The mood in the Visma Lease a Bike camp will be high after Simon Yates’ win and the team seem inclined to give riders freedom to take their own chances.  

Jonathan Milan (16/1; 17.0) can survive a tough climb but Lidl-Trek will have some kind of chase back on in the final 8km but that is just about long enough from which you’d assume Milan would be the quickest.

Romain Grégoire (25/1; 26.0) will be able to punch up the final climb but will he be the fastest of the riders left?

Axel Laurance (25/1; 26.0) rode brilliantly on the Mûr-de-Bretagne stage, very nearly hanging on to the front group with Pogačar and co. Laurance has a big chance here to give Ineos a much-needed result.

Biniam Girmay (40/1; 41.0) has fallen short so far and clearly isn’t at the level he had last year, but the selective finish is definitely in his favour.

Arnaud De Lie (50/1; 51.0) seems to have found his form, whether physical or mental, a fifth then a third, are an indication that the massively talented Belgian could potentially push through to another level. This is a great chance of a breakthrough win at a big price.

Stage 11 Bets

This could be the day to pounce on Wout van Aert despite the shortish price and Arnaud De Lie looks big if he’s anything like back to his best.

Wout van Aert 1pt win @6/1 - 5th

Arnaud De Lie 0.5pts win and 4 places @50/1 - 4th

Posted 2216 BST Tue 15th July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 11 Result