Tour de France 2025

Weather: Warm again, up in the high 20˚Cs with a small chance of showers.

Stage Type: Mountain.

Climbs: Eight classified climbs – seven of them second-category – and over 4,000m of altitude gain makes this a proper day of climbing. All of them are of the mid-mountain type – 3-6km, between 5% and 8% average that suit a punchier type as opposed to a mountain goat.

Start: A few kilometres of flat then up the second-category Côte de Loubeyrat (4.1km at 6.3km) which has sections over 13% and should help the day’s break to form.

Finish: At the top of Le Mont-Dore Puy de Sancy (3.3km at 8%) which is a pretty straight, uniform climb and serves as the last test of the day.

Stage suits: Climbers and puncheurs outside of GC contention and the GC favourites.

Breakaway chances: Good. On paper no single climb looks hard enough to test the GC players which ordinarily would tilt the stage towards the break but combined it’s a very tough day out. So, it depends entirely on how the main GC teams, UAE Team Emirates and Visma Lease a Bike, approach the day. If it kicks off early between them then obviously that reduces the break’s chance.  

What will happen: A big fight for the break and then we’ll see how much rope it gets. It could get very tactical where catching ‘the break of the break’ could be crucial. At the end of the day, it depends on what happens behind but, with a rest day on Tuesday, a lot should be left out on the field so we’ll either have a win from the GC favourites or the breakaway.

Stage 10 Contenders

From the GC favourites:

Tadej Pogačar (2/1; 3.0) has lost João Almeida and Visma Lease a Bike may see a chance to try to isolate him. Still, should it come back together, it’s difficult to look past him for the win – the longer, higher climbs in the last two weeks are where he might be vulnerable.

Jonas Vingegaard (12/1; 13.0) has pretty much matched Pogačar blow for blow apart from in the time trial where he put in an inexplicably bad performance. Yet another 1-2 between these two isn’t impossible.

Oscar Onley (40/1; 41.0) is good on an uphill finish though beating Pogačar will be difficult.

Kévin Vauquelin (50/1; 51.0) ditto above

Selected others for the breakaway:

Ben Healy (8/1; 9.0) was ridiculously strong on stage 6 and is almost unbeatable from a break when on this form. You’d hope that others are wise to his long-distance attacks but often appear like they can do nothing about them. Neilson Powless (25/1; 26.0) is another option for EF Education EasyPost on a parcours that looks perfect for him. Alex Baudin (80/1; 81.0) is a third option and was up the road on the Mûr-de-Bretagne stage before having a slow-motion spill with Healy.

Romain Grégoire (16/1; 17.0) came up a bit short on that stage but, along with his Groupama-FDJ teammate, Valentin Madouas (40/1; 41.0), will surely look to get in the break here. Of the two, Grégoire looks to be in the better form but of course is the shorter price.

Lenny Mártinez (16/1; 17.0) was struggling in the early stages of the race, as he was at the Critérium du Dauphiné, but he found his legs and won the final stage of that, albeit somewhat gifted by Pogačar, so could do something similar here.

Michael Storer (25/1; 26.0) was in stellar form earlier in the season when he won the Tour of the Alps but had no luck in the Giro d’Italia where he hit the deck four times. If he finds anything like his form from the Alps or when he won two stages of the Vuelta a España, then you need to keep him onside.

Pablo Castrillo (40/1; 41.0) is, like Storer, a double stage winner at the Vuelta and appears to have some freedom to go for the break rather than shepherd Enric Mas about.

Quinn Simmons (40/1; 41.0) looked good when finishing second on stage 6 and these shorter climbs definitely suit the American champion. He works hard for the team but should get his chance again to get up the road.

Jordan Jegat (100/1; 101.0) is consistently finishing alongside or just behind the GC favourites. At almost 6mins down, he could sneak up the road.

Stage 10 Bets

The most likely outcome is a breakaway win, but a GC saver is definitely necessary. From the break, Ben Healy could well double up though his price is very short, so let’s go instead with his EF teammates.

Oscar Onley 1pt win and 3 places @40/1

Neilson Powless 1pt win and 3 places @25/1

Michael Storer 1pt win and 3 places @25/1

Quinn Simmons 0.5pts win and 3 places @40/1

Jordan Jegat 0.5pts win and 3 places @100/1

Posted 2339 BST Sun 13th July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 10 Result