Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 12 – Modena > Viadana (Oglio-Po) (172km)

Thu 22nd May | KM0 1325 CET

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Where: Now in the northern region of Emilia-Romagna, finishing on the banks of the Po River.

 
 

Weather: Low 20˚Cs with a chance of showers throughout the day. The wind is due to strengthen to around 20km/h and will be a cross-tailwind for the second half of the race – so echelons are possible.

Stage Type: Flat.

Climbs: Two third-category climbs though neither should be decisive with regards to how the stage plays out.

Start: Gently rising ground for the first 50km or so.  

Finish: Straight and flat until a tight left-hander with 500m to go where a good position will be vital.

Stage suits: Sprinters.

Breakaway chances: Low. As riders become fatigued in a grand tour, there’s always a chance of a strong breakaway ruining the day for the sprinters, but there ought to be more than enough firepower in the peloton to prevent that happening.

What will happen?: Sprint teams – mainly Visma Lease a Bike and Alpecin-Deceuninck – will police and peg a small break before setting up a bunch sprint. GC riders will need to be extra vigilant in the more exposed areas in case gaps form in the wind.


Stage 12 Contenders

Olav Kooij (11/8; 2.38) got boxed in against the barriers after judging it was too early to follow Wout van Aert’s leadout wheel on the last sprint stage into Napoli. With Van Aert seemingly back to somewhere near his best, he’d be wise to stay on it this time. Pound for pound, Kooij should be the fastest sprinter, though we’re getting deeper into a grand tour now and what was true a week ago may not be true anymore.

Kaden Groves (11/4; 3.75) was able to profit from everyone clumping together near the barriers on stage 6 by launching his sprint on the other side of the road and won decisively by three bike lengths. He’s been active in breaks too showing his form is really coming round and, with a clear run, could push Kooij very close.  

Sam Bennett (11/1; 12.0) appeared to run out of gas at the vital moment on the stage 6 finish and came home in 11th shaking his head. Did his chain slip maybe? He seemed to be carrying good speed on the stage 4 finish though, but doesn’t appeal at the price.

Mads Pedersen (12/1; 13.0) seems to be marauding all over the place at the moment, including helping to ruin the breakaway’s chances on stage 11 when we were sitting pretty with Pello Bilbao and Luke Plapp up the road (2/1 favourite and 3/1 second favourite in-running respectively). Unbelievable. He’ll be hoping for a tougher race than it looks on paper to level the playing field against the faster men.

Matteo Moschetti (18/1; 19.0) was relegated from his finishing position of eighth for squeezing Kooij dangerously close to the barriers on stage 6 but didn’t appear to have the speed to match those around him anyway.

Milan Fretin (20/1; 21.0) was in the breakaway on the Strade Bianche stage on Sunday and slid off on a bend. He didn’t seem to be too badly affected, however, and the runner up in Napoli has another chance here at a decent price.

Casper Van Uden (20/1; 21.0) won stage 4 with a bit of a late ambush leadout and they could try something similar here with the final bend just 500m from the line.

Paul Magnier (20/1; 21.0) got up for third on stage 6 despite running into trouble and it would be interesting to see how his speed matches up with Kooij and Groves with a clear run.  

Stage 12 Bets

It’s tempting to go in with Paul Magnier for a third time as the price is attractive, but are we just playing for a place?

The speed advantage that Olav Kooij had over his rivals is likely to have been diminished after several hard days in the legs, so let’s go with Kaden Groves who’ll have an excellent leadout and looks to be getting stronger and stronger.

Kaden Groves 1pt win @11/4

Posted 0012 BST Thu 22nd May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 12 Result

1st Olav Kooij (11/8F)

2nd Casper Van Uden (20/1)

3rd Ben Turner (125/1)