Tour de France 2025

Weather: Mid-high 20˚Cs with a strengthening wind of changeable direction in the afternoon. Anything consistently around 20km/h coming from the north in the final third of the race could cause echelons.  

Stage Type: Hilly.

Climbs: Three classified climbs with the toughest the second-category Pas du Sant (2.9km at 10.2%) which, despite being 60km from home, is a great launchpad for attacks from within the break. Once peaked, the road continues upwards for another 15km before a long descent.

Start: Flat and rolling terrain favouring the bigger rouleurs to make the breakaway.

Finish: A few peaklets break up a near 30km descent before the road flattens out with 8km to go. Most of the final 6km into Carcassonne hugs the riverbank before a sharp right-hander at the flamme rouge and then a left around 300m later. The road curves to the left in the final 200m and rises slightly to the line.

Stage suits: Sprinters who can climb and baroudeurs.

Breakaway chances: Very good. The big descent near the end favours the break as even a small gap would be difficult to close, especially if it is filled with strong rouleurs. Teams with sprinters who climb well could try to control but it’s a big ask and getting them in the break is probably a better option.

What will happen: A big fight for the break that once formed doesn’t come back, leading to either a solo win or reduced sprint from the breakaway.

Stage 15 Contenders

Wout van Aert (13/2; 7.5) is probably a stage winner waiting to happen though will be well marked and is short in price. Victor Campenaerts (33/1; 34.0) has looked super strong, has enough nous to make the right moves and may be the value option from Visma Lease a Bike.

Mathieu van der Poel (8/1; 9.0) went very close to a second stage win in Toulouse (having initially not realised that two riders were ahead of him) and has been suffering from a bit of a cold; Having Alpecin-Deceuninck teammate, Kaden Groves (25/1; 26.0), with him will be better tactically or the team could work to set the Aussie up for a sprint.

Quinn Simmons (18/1; 19.0) has ridden an excellent Tour and probably deserves a stage win. A hillier parcours would suit him better.

Arnaud De Lie (25/1; 26.0) hung on well and won the sprint for fourth in Toulouse showing his form and confidence is definitely coming back.

Axel Laurance (28/1; 29.0) can well and truly turn the race around for Ineos Grenadiers with a second win in two days – he’s punchy and fast on the line.

Jonas Abrahamsen (33/1; 34.0) won stage 11 to cap an incredible comeback from injury and is an attractive price to double up. Magnus Cort (25/1; 26.0) is another option for Uno-X and ordinarily this profile would be perfect for him, though he’s been below his best so far.

Selected others:

Fred Wright (50/1; 51.0) is likely to be up the road and could sneak into the right group from where he could be one of the fastest.

Jhonatan Narvaez (50/1; 51.0) – Tadej Pogačar likes to reward his domestiques and with a rest day on Monday, could be allowed some freedom at big odds.

Mauro Schmid (70/1; 71.0) came close on stage 11 and looks a generous price to be in the mix again.

Stage 15 Bets

Making the right ‘break from the break’ will be crucial and plenty of luck could be involved with a host of different rider types in the mix. So let’s have a few options at decent odds at play for us.

Kaden Groves 1pt win and 3 places @28/1

Axel Laurance 1pt win and 3 places @33/1 - 5th

Victor Campenaerts 1pt win and 3 places @33/1 - 2nd

Jhonatan Narvaez 0.5pts win and 3 places @50/1

Posted 2211 BST Sat 19th July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 15 Result