Tour de France 2025

Weather: Mid 20˚Cs and still quite mild up the mountain at around 15˚C with a strongish north-westerly wind of around 30km/h which, for the last 7km of the climb, will be a headwind.

Stage Type: Mountain.

Climbs: The hors catégorie Mont Ventoux (15.7km at 8.8%) is ascended from the tougher southern side which for the first 9km rarely dips below 8% and is frequently in double digits. An ‘easier’ 4km section follows at around 7% before rising again for the last 3.5km.

Start: Flat and rolling roads until the foot of the climb which isn’t ideal for lighter climbers trying to make the break.

Finish: The final kilometres of Mont Ventoux are very exposed and race organisers were forced to finish the stage lower down the mountain in 2016 due to high winds at the summit. Hopefully this time they can make it all the way to the top.

Stage suits: General classification riders and excellent climbers out of GC contention.

Breakaway chances: Below 50/50. The hockey stick stage profile generally favours GC teams as the break will be easier to control and less likely to contain as many top-notch climbers. This is also an iconic climb and one a certain Slovenian may want to add to his palmarès.

What will happen: UAE Team Emirates-XRG will control the break, though it may be Visma Lease a Bike, who need to put pressure on the UAE domestiques, who ramp up the speed on the climb. After that, it should be a straight battle between Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar, with the latter most likely to skip away in the final kilometres to take the win.  

Stage 16 Contenders

Tadej Pogačar (4/9; 1.44) at over 4mins ahead on GC can afford to ride defensively in the final week but that might start after putting the race well and truly to bed up Mont Ventoux. He’s been suffering from a bit of a cold and did have that spill last week but still, this stage looks like it’s his if he wants it.

Jonas Vingegaard (7/1; 8.0) has admitted the obvious in that he needs to attack Pogačar in the remaining three mountain stages to at least try to overturn his deficit. He put in several digs up Superbagnères on stage 14 without ever getting a gap and on the evidence we’ve seen so far, a different outcome here looks unlikely.  

Florian Lipowitz (22/1; 23.0) sits in third and wears the white jersey. He looks the best of the rest and has backed up his form from the Critérium du Dauphiné last month where he filled the last podium spot behind the two above.

Felix Gall (40/1; 41.0) bravely attacked from the yellow jersey group on Superbagnères 7.5km from the line and was rewarded with a strong fourth place finish. He seems to be riding into his top form as he did in the Tour two years ago and could well make the frame.

For the breakaway:

Thymen Arensman (25/1; 26.0) was super strong in his win on stage 14 though was helped massively by UAE Team Emirates-XRG who eased off just enough and shut down any talk of them being too greedy. They still won the next day, however. Carlos Rodríguez (125/1; 126.0) is another option for Ineos Grenadiers and he finished stage 14 strongly having been pegged behind to some extent with Arensman up the road. These more consistent gradients are much more to his liking rather than the sharp, punchy affairs from earlier in the race where he frequently gets left behind.

Lenny Martinez (25/1; 26.0) cooked himself somewhat going after mountains points on stage 14 but has certainly ridden himself into excellent form having struggled in the first week.

Visma Lease a Bike have attracted criticism for chasing stage wins rather than keeping troops back in support of Vingegaard. It’ll be interesting if they all ride for him here or if a few are allowed up the road.

Their best options are Sepp Kuss (66/1; 67.0) who looked good for a long way on stage 14, Matteo Jorgenson (66/1; 67.0) who, apart from the TT, wasn’t at his top level last week and Simon Yates (80/1; 81.0) who dropped away a bit tamely from the break on stage 14 suggesting his form is on the downturn too.

Michael Storer (80/1; 81.0) is a GC level climber on his day whose form could be building for the last week.  

Luke Plapp (150/1; 151.0) has been largely anonymous but showed in the mountain time trial that he has good legs so could deliver from a break in the final week.  

Stage 16 Bets

Although very likely to win, the short price on Tadej Pogačar is restrictive from a betting standpoint. So, let’s have Felix Gall from the GC group even though we’re probably only playing for a place plus a few decent priced options for the break just in case.

Felix Gall 1pt win and 3 places @40/1

Michael Storer 0.5pts win and 3 places @80/1

Carlos Rodríguez 0.5pts win and 3 places @125/1

Luke Plapp 0.5pts win and 3 places @150/1

Posted 2304 BST Mon 21st July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 16 Result