Tour de France 2025

Weather: Quite mild up the mountains at around 12˚C but the likelihood of rain will make it feel colder.  

Stage Type: Mountain.

Climbs: Three hors-catégorie climbs and a huge 5,500m of altitude gain – Col du Glandon (21.7km at 5.1%), Col de la Madelaine (19.2km at 7.9%) and a summit finish up Col de la Loze (26.4km at 6.5%).

Start: A few kilometres of flat before the road starts rising all the way to the first classified climb of the day. The intermediate sprint comes early – after 23km – so the break probably won’t go until that’s dealt with. After that, as the road goes up more steeply, climbers out of GC contention who want to make the break will have the terrain to do so.  

Finish: Col de la Loze from Brides-les-Baines is the shallower but longer side with average gradients of 5-8% for the first 20km. There’s a steeper kilometre-long section 5km from the top before a small dip after which there are some really sharp bits up and over 14% – a killer way to end the day.

Stage suits: General classification favourites and climbers outside of GC contention but possibly still in the top 10 given the time gaps.

Breakaway chances: Good though the GC situation suggests that the pace will be put on early from behind which could doom the break’s chances. Either way, the winner will need to have excellent climbing legs.

What will happen: A big break will go before or on the first climb which will include some satellite riders for the GC teams. Visma Lease a Bike will try to isolate Tadej Pogačar on the Col de la Madelaine before a final dust-up on the Col de la Loze. Whether that’s also for the stage win is 50/50.

Stage 18 Contenders

Tadej Pogačar (8/11; 1.73) was put under severe pressure on stage 16 but at no point did he look like being gapped. He certainly doesn’t look as sprightly as he did a week ago however, but with a 4mins 15secs lead on GC, he can afford to ride defensively.

Jonas Vingegaard (9/2; 5.5) can take some heart from stage 16 where his Visma Lease a Bike team were superior to UAE Team Emirates-XRG and he was Pogačar’s match on the mountain. How close he came to breaking the Slovenian we don’t know, but we should see similar team tactics play out here.  

For the breakaway:

Thymen Arensman (22/1; 23.0) looked a strong favourite from the break on stage 16 but fell away tamely and admitted afterwards that he had no legs. He’s only 12pts off the polka dot jersey and that will probably be the first goal before seeing where he is. Carlos Rodríguez (25/1; 26.0) is another option for Ineos Grenadiers and despite sitting in 10th overall is more than 20mins behind so should have leeway to chase the break although it could trigger a domino effect above him. He had a little tumble along with Julian Alaphilippe on stage 17 but didn’t look too badly affected.

(Morning update - Rodríguez fell again at the end of stage 17 and is out of the Tour with a fractured pelvis)

Ben Healy (25/1; 26.0) sits one place above Rodríguez in the GC and could follow the Spaniard up the road. He’s looking super strong and perhaps should’ve won stage 16 but he really needs to win solo – this is another big chance for him.  

Enric Mas (25/1; 26.0) attacked bravely on stage 16 which was good to see and is clearly coming into some form but wins so rarely that he’s difficult to back.

Valentin Paret-Peintre (33/1; 34.0) beat Healy to the line for a brilliant win on Mont Ventoux. His legs are there clearly and if he can come down from the emotional high could be in the mix again.

Felix Gall (33/1; 34.0) was surprisingly dropped from the group of favourites with 11km still to go on Mont Ventoux. He sits in 7th on GC so any move for the break would cause ripples above him.

Santiago Buitrago (33/1; 34.0) came down really hard on stage 7 in the crash that ended both his teammate Jack Haig and João Almeida’s race and has been understandably quite since. A third on stage 16 however shows he could be coming round and high-altitude mountains like these are the Colombian’s playground.

Michael Storer (40/1; 41.0) missed the decisive break on stage 16 but he should make this one and then we’ll see how good his legs are. The tricky descents, however, especially in the wet, are not in his favour.

Stage 18 Bets

Is Tadej Pogačar still sick? Losing a bit of form? Or just dog tired? Either way, he seems to have lost a bit of his usual sparkle. Visma Lease a Bike were stronger than UAE Team Emirates on stage 16 so this could get very interesting. All in all, Jonas Vingegaard looks the better value at the prices.

Out of the break, it’s worth staying onside with Ben Healy and a potentially resurgent Santiago Buitrago.   

Jonas Vingegaard 2pts win @9/2

Ben Healy 1pt win and 3 places @25/1

Santiago Buitrago 1pt win and 3 places @33/1

Posted 2250 BST Wed 23rd July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 18 Result