Tour de France 2025

Weather: Mid-20˚Cs with a chance of rain in the afternoon. The breeze doesn’t look too strong – around 10km/h – and will be a headwind for most of the day making echelons unlikely despite some exposed roads.

Stage Type: Flat.

Climbs: Two fourth-category climbs split up the route to ensure it’s not an entirely flat day.  

Start: A small uncategorised climb 10km in may help the break form. After that, it’s gently rising ground for the next 50km.

Finish: More or less straight run into town from 8km out before four roundabouts in a row that will string the peloton out. A final sweeping left leaves the riders 700m from the line before a straight, flat sprint.

Stage suits: Sprinters.

Breakaway chances: Possible, but below 50/50. This is the final pure flat stage of the Tour as this year the traditional Champs-Élysées finish in Paris includes three passes up Montmartre first, so sprint teams will be motivated to bring back any breakaway. However, we’ve seen these so-called flat stages time and again at the backend of a grand tour that become very difficult to control should a strong group of rouleurs get away, so a break is certainly not without a chance.

What will happen: Sprint teams will look to police a manageable break before bringing it back for a bunch finish.

Stage 17 Contenders

Tim Merlier (6/4; 2.5) has the fastest top-end speed amongst the sprinters and will be difficult to beat if well positioned. Soudal Quick-Step will be chipper after Valentin Paret-Peintre’s brilliant win up Mont Ventoux on stage 16 and will be looking for a fifth stage win.

Jonathan Milan (11/4; 3.75) and Lidl-Trek messed up on stage 16 picking up no intermediate sprint points which surely was the team’s one and only goal for the day. Though still favourite for the green jersey, Milan needs to pick up points here, however, his final leadout man, Simone Consonni, fell badly in the Julian Alaphilippe crash on Sunday which isn’t ideal.

Wout van Aert (16/1; 17.0) will probably give it a nudge and can hope that the playing field has been levelled somewhat against the fast men this deep into a grand tour. He also has the option to go for the break which would set alarm bells ringing for the sprint teams.

Jordi Meeus (25/1; 26.0) is doing a lot of work for his two GC leaders but will be given his own chance here either in the sprint or break.

Arnaud De Lie (25/1; 26.0) seems to be getting stronger and can get in the mix even on a flat finish.  

Biniam Girmay (25/1; 26.0) hasn’t had the same stellar Tour he had last year with his runners-up spot on stage 1 back in Lille his best finish.

Kaden Groves (28/1; 29.0) hasn’t got it right yet in the sprints and not having Mathieu van der Poel by his side doesn’t help him.

For the breakaway:

Jonas Abrahamsen (50/1; 51.0) was in the break again on stage 16 and of course has his stage win – he’s looking super strong and not a man sprint teams will want up the road.

Kasper Asgreen (70/1; 71.0) would be another nightmare rider to be allowed in the break but no doubt will try and is an attractive price.

Mauro Schmid (150/1; 151.0) continues to be very active and could give it another go, though would prefer more hills.

Victor Campenaerts (175/1; 176.0) could again be given a pass to go forward and is looking strong.

Nils Politt (425/1; 426.0) will probably be allowed a well-earned rest and has work ahead of him in the mountains but would be a big threat from a break at a huge price.

Stage 17 Bets

If it comes to a sprint, which is likely, Tim Merlier has the edge but let’s have a fun play at massive odds on Nils Politt from a break too.

Tim Merlier 2pts win @6/4

Nils Politt 0.25pts win and 3 places @425/1

Posted 2240 BST Tue 22nd July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 17 Result