Tour de France 2025

Weather: A chance of showers all day with a strong westerly breeze (20km/h, gusting to 50km/h) which will largely by a headwind for the riders.

Stage Type: Hilly.

Climbs: Four classified climbs but the most significant will be the double hit of Côte de Saint-Étienne-au-Mont (0.9km at 11%, max. 15%) and Côte d’Outreau (0.8km at 8.8%, max. 12%) that both come inside the final 10km and are perfect launchpads for attacks.

Start: Gently rising and rolling terrain for the first 50km or so before it starts going a bit more up and down.

Finish: A sharpish 300m rise after the flamme rouge and then a slight uphill 100m drag to the line.

Stage suits: The series of short, wall-like climbs are perfect for puncheurs and general classification riders with an explosive uphill kick. A fast sprint will probably be needed as well to win the day.

Breakaway chances: A hilly stage 2 last year was taken by the breakaway, but it looks less likely here where enough teams will like the look of this finish to bring it all back. The winner will almost certainly also take the yellow jersey. Low, but definitely not zero.

What will happen: Having both the yellow jersey and stage favourite, Alpecin-Deceuninck should peg and bring back the break before attacks start on the final two (or maybe even three) climbs. A solo win isn’t impossible, but some kind of reduced sprint is most likely with some of the less punchy GC contenders losing time.

Stage 2 Contenders

Mathieu van der Poel (7/4; 2.75) landed his seventh and eighth monument in the spring with victories at Milan-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix but had a setback in May when he suffered a minor wrist fracture in a mountain bike event. Despite his lack of training, he didn’t seem too hindered during the Critérium du Dauphiné and another month should see him free of discomfort, back to his best and ready for a stage that looks excellent for him.

Tadej Pogačar (4/1; 5.0) managed to turn over Van der Poel on the opening stage of the Dauphiné that had a similar finale, though he did benefit from the Dutchman launching his sprint early to keep a marauding peloton at bay. Pogačar is likely to put pressure on his rivals here and, should it get very selective, is the fastest sprinter amongst the GC men.  

Wout van Aert (9/1; 10.0) picked up a stomach bug a week ago but doesn’t appear to be suffering too much. He kept himself out of trouble on stage 1 but should get involved here on a parcours that suits him very well.

Thibau Nys (14/1; 15.0) was sick at the Baloise Belgium Tour and almost missed out on selection but, like Van der Poel and Van Aert, his cyclocross background gives him the perfect attributes for these short, sharp climbs. He did crash on stage 1, however, which is never ideal.  

Selected others:

Axel Laurance (28/1; 29.0) showed well at the Critérium du Dauphiné and the hilly parcours of the first week gives the former under-23 world champion an excellent chance of a breakthrough win.

Jasper Philipsen (33/1; 34.0) is in the yellow jersey and signaled his intention to try to hang on to it. It looks unlikely, but gives Alpecin-Deceuninck another option alongside Van der Poel.

Biniam Girmay (33/1; 34.0) finished an excellent second on stage 1 (for the sixth time this year) which is encouraging but was well beaten by Philipsen. This lumpier terrain would ordinarily suit him, but is he yet at the level to compete for the win?

Remco Evenepoel (50/1; 51.0) lost 39secs on Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard and will be smarting after admitting his Soudal Quick-Step team fell asleep on stage 1. He’ll likely animate things on one of the climbs but if he doesn’t arrive solo, will probably find faster riders on the line.  

Romain Grégoire (70/1; 71.0) won the chaotic opening stage of the Tour de Suisse from a huge breakaway in June and narrowly missed out in the French nationals last weekend. The young Frenchman is clearly on form, has plenty of explosivity and a decent sprint.

Kévin Vauquelin (70/1; 71.0) almost won the Tour de Suisse and was climbing with the best for a long way. He won stage 2 from the break in last year’s Tour and looks an even better rider now. He’s twice been runner up at La Flèche Wallonne which shows a wall climb is no problem.

Julian Alaphilippe (80/1; 81.0) showed some of his old spark at the Tour de Suisse where he was frequently involved at the pointy end. Five years ago, Alaphilippe would’ve been a shoo-in for this, but it would be a surprise to see him compete with the very best now.

Oscar Onley (125/1; 126.0) got a stage win and a place on the podium at the Tour de Suisse. If it gets super selective, the young Scot has one of the fastest finishes out of the GC men.

Mauro Schmid (125/1; 126.0) was one of the standout riders at the Tour de Suisse last month. He was dropped in the crosswinds on stage 1 but that was probably about saving his legs rather than a lack of them. Maybe the Swiss champion will try something from distance.

Stage 2 Bets

How selective is it going to get? That’s the big question. It looks too hard for the purer sprinters, especially with the final climb peaking with just 5km to go.

The top two in the market are short enough and it could become quite tactical with attacks being launched all over the place, so let’s look for something a bit bigger.

The two young Frenchmen, Kévin Vauquelin and Romain Grégoire, are both in stellar form and look a little overpriced. Joining an attack from distance may be their best bet rather than waiting for Van der Poel and Pogačar to light it up.  

Kévin Vauquelin 0.5pts win and 3 places @70/1 - 8th

Romain Grégoire 0.5pts win and 3 places @70/1 - 4th

Posted 2343 BST Sat 5th July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 2 Result