Tour de France 2025

Weather: Another wet start and maybe even thunderstorms but it should clear up in the afternoon. A strongish wind (25km/h, gusting to 55km/h) coming from the north which means a cross-headwind for the opening 110km followed by a more direct headwind for the remaining 70km.

Stage Type: Flat.

Climbs: Just the one fourth-category climb – the cobbled Mont Cassel (2.4km at 4.4%) from stage 1 is used again though the route to the top is different. It’s crested with 30km to go, however, so will have no impact on the stage result.

Start: Flat and rolling terrain.

Finish: The riders track the canalside all the way into Dunkirk to the finish line. There’s a sweeping right with 1.5km to go before the road curves gently to the left. It then narrows over the top of a mini-roundabout 400m from the line where a good position will be vital before bending to the right as the sprints are launched.

Stage suits: Sprinters.

Breakaway chances: Very low – the sprinters will want their day.

What will happen: Sprint teams will reel in a small break to set up a bunch sprint. With the predicted headwind, Lidl-Trek could get clever and leave all of the work to Alpecin-Deceuninck whilst they save energy in the wheels but are more likely to contribute as a statement of intent. The final 30km are the most exposed but the predicted headwind makes echelons unlikely.

Stage 3 Contenders

Tim Merlier (15/8; 2.88) messed up on stage 1 but that hasn’t made him a slower sprinter overnight. His dreams of yellow are gone, but this is a chance for him and his Soudal Quick-Step team to turn things around.

Jonathan Milan (5/2; 3.5) as we know also didn’t make the crucial split on stage 1 but, for what it’s worth, has beaten his rivals in both intermediate sprints. He did have a slow-motion coming together on the climb 30km from home on stage 2 though most of the damage appeared to be to his handlebars.

Jasper Philipsen (10/3; 4.33) of course won stage 1 and put in an impressive performance on Sunday too finishing only 30secs from the front of the race, showing he’s climbing very well. If Kaden Groves helps out again, which we assume he will, then that, along with Mathieu van der Poel, makes for a pretty formidable leadout.

Biniam Girmay (16/1; 17.0) profited from the echelons on stage 1 to finish an excellent, if distant, second. He’ll struggle to live with the best on these flat finishes though and also banged a knee on his handlebars up the final climb on stage 2 which could leave him sore.

Jordi Meeus (18/1; 19.0) is another who we didn’t get to see on stage 1 but comes in on form and has an excellent final leadout man in Danny Van Poppel.

Dylan Groenewegen (33/1; 34.0) looks a big price considering who he is. It’ll be interesting to see how close he can get to Merlier and co.  

Stage 3 Bets

Understandably, the prices of the big three have narrowed a bit since the opening stage but we don’t really know how they match up against each other yet.

Either of them winning wouldn’t be a surprise, but the pick goes to Tim Merlier who I suspect might just have the edge given a clear run and is a slightly bigger price than on stage 1.

Tim Merlier 1pt win @15/8 - 1st

Posted 2106 BST Sun 6th July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 3 Result