Tour de France 2025

Weather: Looks like rain, maybe even thunderstorms.

Stage Type: Hilly.

Climbs: Not a mountain stage but still getting on for nearly 3,000m of altitude gain and four classified climbs. The second-category Côte de Thésy (3.6km at 8.9%) comes with 60km to go and will be a useful attack point for puncheurs.  

Start: A short descent to the bottom of the Col de la Croix de la Serra (12.1km at 4.1%) on which the day’s break should go.

Finish: Plenty of ups and downs where moves can be made though the final 8km are flat.

Stage suits: Puncheurs, rouleurs, baroudeurs and anyone with legs.

Breakaway chances: Excellent. This is a tough day out, especially if the weather is filthy, but it’s not hard enough for the GC players so a breakaway win is very likely. However, it’s not impossible that we see riders from the top 10 – Ben Healy and Primož Roglič are the most likely – go for the break which would force teams above them on GC to ride and then it could get chaotic.

What will happen: A massive fight for the breakaway where anyone with legs will roll the dice and try and get up the road. From there, the tactics will be fascinating as those without a punch on the hills will need to anticipate and get ahead of the race. Catching the right ‘break of the break’ will be vital and a lot of luck may be needed, but good legs are a must.

Stage 20 Contenders

Selected riders for the breakaway:

Wout van Aert (12/1; 13.0) isn’t at peak WVA and will be heavily marked in a break but must be considered one of the favourites on a parcours that looks perfect. Victor Campenaerts (18/1; 19.0) is climbing better than ever and has the nous to make the right moves – expect both to be up the road for Visma Lease a Bike.

Quinn Simmons (10/1; 11.0) has been an ever-present feature on this Tour, either on the front working for his team or off the front in breaks and probably deserves a stage win. Jasper Stuyven (66/1; 67.0) has been less eye-catching but provides another quality option for Lidl-Trek.

Ben Healy (20/1; 21.0) is now ninth on GC so any move should be marked by teams above him, otherwise this is another good stage for the Irishman. Healy’s EF Education-EasyPost support man Harry Sweeny (66/1; 67.0) is on some great form and this is a rare chance for the Aussie to go for his own chances at decent odds.

Luke Plapp (40/1; 41.0) and Mauro Schmid (50/1; 51.0) for Jayco AlUla are either at the back saving their legs or hunting breaks and it would be no surprise to see either of them lifting their arms here.   

Jhonathan Narvaez (22/1; 23.0) and Tim Wellens (33/1; 34.0) are likely to be given an option by UAE Team Emirates-XRG having worked to (almost) secure Tadej Pogačar’s fourth Tour victory.

Axel Laurance (28/1; 29.0) has a punch and sprint and could round off a surprisingly successful Tour for Ineos Grenadiers.             

Jonas Abrahamsen (33/1; 34.0) is looking so strong he could easily double-up with a second stage win.

Frank van den Broek (50/1; 51.0) has been flying in his support for Oscar Onley and even though a few more climbs would help, having form at the end of three weeks counts for a lot.

Stage 20 Bets

This should be a good one but from a betting perspective is a bit of lottery.

Any of the above and plenty not listed could be in the mix but based on how closely the favourites could be marked, let’s have a roll with a few at a bigger price.

Victor Campenaerts 2pts win and 3 places @18/1

Luke Plapp 1pt win and 4 places @33/1

Frank van den Broek 1pt win and 4 places @50/1 - 2nd

Harry Sweeny 1pt win and 4 places @66/1 - 10th

Posted 2120 BST Fri 25th July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 20 Result