Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 4 – Alberobello (Pietramadre) > Lecce (189km)

Tue 13th May | KM0 1305 CET

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Where: In the south-eastern region of Puglia, ending with a 12km lap around Lecce at the heel of the Italian peninsula.

Weather: Similar to the first three days, low 20˚Cs with the chance of a shower or two. The riders will have a cross-tailwind for most of the day – enough for echelons? Probably not.

Stage Type: Flat.

Climbs: A small fourth-category rise 16km into the stage which may help the break to form.

Start: Largely downhill for the first 40km apart from that climb, which generally won’t help riders trying to get up the road.

Finish: A sweeping right-left-right around 1.2km out where positioning will be crucial followed by a left-hander at a roundabout with just 300m to go into a flat finish where it will be doubly so.

Stage suits: Sprinters.

Breakaway chances: Very low. This is the first true flat stage so sprinter teams will make sure any break is brought back.

What will happen?: Primarily Visma Lease a Bike but a few other teams too will ensure the stage ends in a bunch sprint.

Stage 4 Contenders

Olav Kooij (15/8; 2.88) starts as the strong favourite as the fastest pure sprinter on the Giro startlist and will have the help of Wout van Aert (28/1; 29.0) who, despite clearly being under par, is still a deluxe leadout. Kooij’s build-up hasn’t been ideal though with a fractured collarbone at Gent-Wevelgem at the end of March and therefore can’t be at his best level. We’ve had three winning favourites so far, will we have another one?

Mads Pedersen (6/1; 7.0) is in pink again and had about as good an opening weekend as he could’ve dreamed. Second favourite on a stage for pure sprinters seems strange but he clearly has amazing legs right now and in no way can be ruled out, especially as Lidl-Trek are purring and will likely put him in a good position for the final kilometre.

Sam Bennett (13/2; 7.5) has had a decent season with four wins albeit against lesser opposition than he’ll face here. He was only just pipped by Jonathan Milan with Kooij behind him in the final stage of Tirreno-Adriatico though which shows the former Tour de France green jersey winner can still operate at the top table.

Milan Fretin (8/1; 9.0) has some impressive results this year though mainly on tougher parcours and could be better suited by Wednesday’s finish.

Matteo Moschetti (10/1; 11.0) was hit by a truck out training in July of last year and suffered some horrendous injuries including broken vertebrae in his neck. After his physical wounds healed, Moschetti had to seek the help of a psychotherapist to give him the confidence to ride on roads again, but remarkably started the year with a win at the AlUla Tour, followed up with three more in March and April and finished on the podium at Scheldeprijs. It would be an emotional win if Moschetti could get his arms in the air.

Paul Magnier (12/1; 13.0) wasn’t able to get over the climbs and compete on stage 1 but will have his shot here. Ethan Hayter and Luke Lamperti looks a decent leadout for a Soudal Quick-Step team that could do with a fillip after Mikel Landa’s abandonment.

Kaden Groves (12/1; 13.0) has had a disrupted build-up due to a knee injury that flared up during the Volta a Catalunya in March. Without that, Groves would be at least half the price so it depends how much we can take on trust that his preparation has got him back in top shape.

Stage 4 Bets

Again, there are reasons to oppose the stage favourite at such a short price – sprints can be very messy affairs even without the caveats around Kooij’s form. So, purely on price, the value bet has to be Alpecin-Deceuninck’ s Kaden Groves. There’s even a bit of 16/1 out there which seems far too big but the 12s and the extra place will do nicely.

Kaden Groves 1pt win and 4 places @12/1 – 5th

Posted 1726 BST Mon 12th May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change