Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 5 – Ceglie Messapica > Matera (151km)

Wed 14th May | KM0 1350 CET

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Stage 5 Preview

Where: Travelling west from the Puglia region to the coast road then inland for some bumpier terrain.

 
 

Weather: There are some thunderstorms about but it looks like we’ll be lucky again with a dry, warmish day.

Stage Type: Designated flat stage, but not as flat as stage 4.

Climbs: The fourth-category climb to Montescaglioso inside the final 30km is 3km long and averages over 8% – steep enough for attacks and to ship some fast men. It’s immediately followed by an unclassified rise of almost 5km at 4.5% which will make it difficult for dropped riders to get back on.

Start: Gently rising ground for the first 25km or so which hopefully entices a few more riders out of the peloton than we had on stage 4.

Finish: Tricky – 750m at 6.3% inside the final 3km before a short drop then a drag of around 2.5%, from just outside the flamme rouge to the line, all on quite twisty turny roads.

Stage suits: Sprinters that can survive the climbs and puncheurs that fancy an attack.  

Breakaway chances: Probably low but definitely not zero. We might see a bigger fight for the break and if Lidl-Trek are leant on to do all the policing and pulling things could get interesting.  

What will happen?: Lidl-Trek will try to hold things together for a reduced group sprint, though there is terrain in those final 30km for riders to attack and ruin their plans.


Stage 5 Contenders

Mads Pedersen (13/8; 2.62) was caught out behind crashes a couple of times on stage 4 but battled back on a pretty chaotic circuit to finish fourth. Lidl-Trek were less organised than they had been in Albania and look to have lost Søren Kragh Andersen which is a blow. They’ve got a job on here to keep the race together again for Pedersen but they’ve done it twice now, so why not?

Wout van Aert (16/1; 17.0) would ordinarily be vying for favouritism on a parcours like this but is clearly still under the weather and didn’t even take part in Olav Kooij’s (20/1; 21.0) leadout on stage 4. Kooij himself can climb well at his best though was dropped, or pulled the plug, pretty quickly when the road went uphill on stage 1.

Kaden Groves (16/1; 17.0) and his Alpecin-Deceuninck leadout appeared to be doing a perfect job on stage 4, until the crucial last bend when the Aussie got swamped and started his sprint from way too far back. Still, he flew home and his legs look good. Whether he’ll still be in the shake-up here with these climbs is another story. Quentin Hermans (50/1; 51.0) might be the chosen man if Groves falls away.

Corbin Strong (16/1; 17.0) very nearly got over the top of Pedersen for the win on stage 3 so is clearly going well and the uphill drag suits.

Orluis Aular (20/1; 21.0) has two thirds and nothing to suggest he won’t be there or thereabouts again.

Tom Pidcock (20/1; 21.0) will surely fancy a dig on one of the climbs near to home – can he get a gap though?

Selected others

Paul Magnier (40/1; 41.0) wasn’t able to stay at the front on stage 1 but the climbs here are much shorter, punchier affairs which gives him every chance at a decent price. If he drops off, Luke Lamperti (250/1; 251.0) should get his chance.

Andrea Vendrame (50/1; 51.0) and Dorian Godon (66/1; 67.0) are probably better options for Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale given that Sam Bennett (50/1; 51.0) is likely to struggle on the climbs.

Filippo Fiorelli (80/1; 81.0) can climb and sprint so should be on the scene at big odds.

Isaac del Toro (100/1; 101.0) might be given licence by UAE Team Emirates to try something late on – the steep kicker inside the last 3km might be a perfect launchpad for the young Mexican.  

Stage 5 Bets

A tricky one to call this and probably best to have an option for a reduced sprint and a late attack. Corbin Strong wasn’t far away from a win on stage 3 and could go one better here, Isaac del Toro meanwhile is super punchy as well as fast on the line and the triple-figure odds are worth a nibble.

Corbin Strong 1pt win and 3 places @16/1

Isaac del Toro 0.5pts win and 3 places @100/1


Posted 2119 BST Tue 13th May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 5 Result

1st Mads Pedersen (`13/8F)

2nd Edoardo Zambanini (80/1)

3rd Tom Pidcock (20/1)