Tour de France 2025

Weather: Hot again with a westerly breeze of 15km/h gusting to 40km/h which will be a tailwind or cross-tailwind and may interest those looking to force echelons.

Stage Type: Flat.

Climbs: None.

Start: Rolling and flat but, like stage 8, baroudeurs may be thin on the ground.

Finish: Plenty of street furniture and road dividers coming in but after a right-hander with 1.5km to go, the finish is flat and straight to the line.

Stage suits: Sprinters.

Breakaway chances: Low, though the threat of crosswinds could ruin things for sprinters who don’t make the right split.

What will happen: A small break will be policed and controlled by Lidl-Trek and it will be brought back for a bunch sprint.

Stage 9 Contenders

Tim Merlier (5/4; 2.25) got a puncture 12km out on stage 8, managed to fight his way back on, but never had a good position and ran out of legs and luck. That’s a shame as it would’ve been good to see him battle with Milan on a finish that supposedly didn’t suit him. I think he’d have gone close, and Milan wasn’t quite the nailed-on winner as some suggested, but we’ll never know.

Jonathon Milan (6/4; 2.5) took his first Tour win and confidence will be high in the Lidl-Trek camp. As we’ve said, he has the benefit of an excellent leadout and, with his enormous power, is very difficult to get past.

Kaden Groves (14/1; 15.0) burned some matches after a misjudged move around the roundabout 1.5km from home and by the time he hit the front appeared to run out of puff. Otherwise, Alpecin-Deceuninck did a good job, but Groves was well beaten and it’s a leap of faith to see it being different here.

Jordi Meeus (22/1; 23.0) backed off 5km out and left Danny van Poppel (33/1; 34.0) to compete for the sprint but he finished outside the top 10. Neither look ready to win this.

Wout van Aert (28/1; 29.0) finished a good second and is nearing his top level. But on a flat sprint, Milan and Merlier should have his number.

Stage 9 Bets

Things could split in the crosswinds and then it depends on who makes the front group. Otherwise, Milan or Merlier? It’s a real toss-up but Merlier deserves some luck after the puncture on stage 8 and on a flat finish can hit the higher top speed. So let’s go back in with Tim Merlier to win stage 9.

Tim Merlier 1pt win @5/4

Posted 2234 BST Sat 12th July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 9 Result