Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 10 – Lucca > Pisa ITT (28.6km)

Tue 20th May | First Rider 1315 CET

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Where: Staying in Tuscany after a well-earned rest day for the second and final individual time trial that ends alongside the Leaning Tower of Pisa.

Weather: Thundery showers are forecast from around 2pm local time onwards which could cause havoc.

Stage Type: Individual time trial.

Route characteristics: A slight rise in the middle but largely flat for the 28.6km route which has two 6km long, straight sections to put the power down.

Stage suits: Time trial specialists and general classification contenders.

Stage 10 Contenders

Josh Tarling (4/9; 1.44) won the stage 2 time trial in Albania (just) and is the heavy odds-on favourite on a course that suits him even more – long and largely straight without the climb in the middle. Barring any mishaps – which isn’t guaranteed given the weather forecast – it’s difficult to see past the Welshman taking another stage victory.

Edoardo Affini (12/1; 13.0) has looked strong when pulling for Visma Lease a Bike and finished a good fourth on stage 2. As a specialist, he’s favoured by this longer course so an even better result is possible for the current European champion. His early start time should give him the best of the conditions and his price has been cut accordingly.

Primož Roglič (16/1; 17.0) very nearly won the opening time trial and was looking in good nick but fell on the Strade Bianche stage, appeared to have some bad wounds on his side, and lost over a minute to Ayuso and other GC contenders. If he recovers well on the rest day, this is a chance to claw some of that time back.

Juan Ayuso (18/1; 19.0) put in a slightly disappointing TT effort on stage 2, possibly still suffering from his tumble the day before. He’ll be looking to match or better his GC rivals this time. He did, however, get caught up in the same crash as Roglič and crossed the line with a blood-soaked sock from presumably a nasty gash on his right knee. He also lost seconds riding into the finish up the Piazzo del Campo which wasn’t a great sign, though it was a tough day out.

Wout van Aert (16/1; 17.0) took a brilliant win on stage 9 after struggling with illness since the start of the race. On his day, Van Aert is still one of the best time triallists in the world though beating Tarling over this distance looks a challenge and he may be better suited to saving his legs for some breakaways.

Jay Vine (18/1; 19.0) looked like he may pull off a surprise win on stage 2 the day after being on the ground. He’s been down again since but has still been lively off the front and the former Australian time trial champion will likely be there or thereabouts again.

Mathias Vaček (25/1; 26.0) showed how strong he is by bridging to the front group on the Strade Bianche stage. He’s made great strides in his time trial these last two years and should put in another strong showing here.

Ethan Hayter (25/1; 26.0) put in a good TT on stage 2 (9th, 13secs down) but has struggled with some illness and has largely hung around the back of the peloton, as he is wont to do. He’ll have targeted this stage, however, as his best chance of a high stage finish.

Luke Plapp (30/1; 31.0) is the current Australian time trial champion – a title he’s won three times now – and of course now has a stage win to his name. He came down on the stage 2 TT so will no doubt be keen to show everyone what he can do in his favoured discipline here.

Daan Hoole (33/1; 34.0) is the current Dutch TT champion, finished sixth on stage 2 and has done some excellent work on the front so far this Giro so another good showing here is likely.

Brandon McNulty (40/1; 41.0) seemed to be one of the worst affected in terms of wounds by the crash that affected Roglič and Ayuso. That said, the US time trial champion has produced some excellent performances in the past, has stealthily moved up to 8th on GC, and can’t be ruled out.

Antonio Tiberi (80/1; 81.0) is a former world junior TT champion and has some very decent results over the last couple of years. He’ll be looking to improve on his 18th place in the opening TT – a top 5 at a big price isn’t out of the question.

Selected Start Times (all times local CET)

Ethan Hayter 1341

Edoardo Affini 1355

Daan Hoole 1402

Luke Plapp 1428

Wout van Aert 1434

Josh Tarling 1436

Jay Vine 1437

Mathias Vaček 1601

Primož Roglič 1613

Brandon McNulty 1619

Antonio Tiberi 1634

Juan Ayuso 1637

Isaac del Toro 1640

Stage 10 Bets

It looks as if conditions are going to deteriorate as the afternoon goes on which would obviously favour the early starters, but who knows? The riders could dodge the thunderstorm completely.

Josh Tarling is relatively early off the ramp and, all things being equal, should win this time trial but it’s not worth getting involved at such a short price, especially with the forecast as it is.

So, let’s look outside the win market for potentially a bit more value – Edoardo Affini could lay down an early marker before the rain comes and Luke Plapp looks to have the legs for a top 10 finish. Antonio Tiberi is going well and obviously has extra motivation to do a good TT now that he sits in third overall.

Small stakes though, fingers crossed everyone gets around safely.

Edoardo Affini 0.5pts Top 3 @5/2 – 5th

Luke Plapp 0.5pts Top 10 @11/10 – 7th

Antonio Tiberi 0.5pts Top 10 @6/4

Posted 2125 BST Mon 19th May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change