Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 9 – Gubbio > Siena (181km)

Sun 18th May | KM0 1305 CET

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Stage 9 Preview

Where: From Umbria in the centre of Italy travelling west into Tuscany for a route that includes almost 30km of white, gravel roads.

 
 

Weather: The riders will be lucky to avoid the rain or even thunderstorms, but it should be warm at least.

Stage Type: Hilly, but it’s the unpaved roads that could make this treacherous for general classification contenders.

Climbs: Two that are classified but lots of ups and downs all through the second half of the stage.

Start: Down for the first 25km or so then rolling generally uphill for another 25km until the foot of the third-category La Cima climb (4.3km at 7.4%).

Finish: The classic Strade Bianche finish up to the Piazzo del Campo in Siena – around 300m at over 10%, max 16% – so if you don’t arrive solo, a severe punch will be handy.  

Stage suits: Puncheurs, classics riders and generally excellent bike handlers.

Breakaway chances: Good but obviously depends on its composition. XDS Astana will be keen to hold on to the pink jersey for as long as possible, so if a threat is up the road they will ride. Q36.5 too may want to hold it together for the stage favourite, Tom Pidcock.

What will happen?: Potential carnage, especially given the weather forecast. Some GC teams may see this as an opportunity to put pressure on their rivals, but the majority will just be hoping they can get through the day unscathed.

Stage 9 Contenders

Tom Pidcock (5/1; 6.0) as a former Strade Bianche winner, will have had this stage circled in the roadbook for a while, but at just 1min 27secs back is unlikely to be allowed up the road so will need his team to keep the break on a tight lead.

Isaac del Toro (18/1; 19.0) came second in Clásica Jaén (the Spanish equivalent of Strade Bianche) earlier in the year which shows he can handle a bit of off-road stuff. The young Mexican looks in great form and has a punch and sprint which would be ideal in the final.

Juan Ayuso (20/1; 21.0) looks to be flying right now – he skipped away to take the win on stage 7 and even nicked a second off his rivals at the end of stage 8.

Primož Roglič (22/1; 23.0) got caught sleeping in a bad position on stage 7 but still seems to have pretty good legs and this finish should suit if he handles the gravel and avoids disasters.  

Egan Bernal (28/1; 29.0) took time off his rivals on the gravel stage when he won the Giro back in 2021 and may try something here – what price Josh Tarling to stretch the field in the same way Filippo Ganna did that day? He was going well in this year’s Clásica Jaén too until breaking his collarbone in a fall.

 

For the breakaway

Mathias Vaček (10/1; 11.0) at 1min 34secs down, still has a sniff of the pink jersey but regardless, his one-day qualities are well suited for a stage win whatever the race lead situation. We’re also likely to see his Lidl-Trek teammate, Mads Pedersen (18/1; 19.0), up the road. He was unfortunate to get cooked out in front for about 70km on stage 8 when the race dynamics just didn’t fall for him.

Pello Bilbao (20/1; 21.0) has an excellent record in Strade Bianche (four times in the top 10) but isn’t making the breaks despite repeated efforts. He’ll try again here perhaps alongside his teammate, Edoardo Zambanini (33/1; 34.0) who has already gone close to a stage win.

Wout van Aert (20/1; 21.0) was off the front a few times on stage 8 but plenty wanted his wheel and he couldn’t forge a decisive gap. Good signs that his form is coming round though and has an excellent record at Strade Bianche, including a win in 2020.  

Ben Turner (40/1; 41.0) is an excellent one-day racer and was runner-up in Clásica Jaén two years ago. Will he get licence to get up the road or have to stick with Bernal, though?

Romain Bardet (70/1; 71.0) made a great recovery from his tumble on stage 7 to contend from the break on stage 8 and came close to a win on a wet Strade Bianche seven years ago.  

Christian Scaroni (80/1; 81.0) has been in great form in one-day races this year and should’ve recovered a bit more after coming down on stage 6 but as an XDS Astana rider it could get complicated if his own team is chasing behind.

Nicholas Prodhomme (80/1; 81.0) has a good record at Clásica Jaén and was in the break for the second day running so clearly has great legs. If not Prodhomme for Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale, then a tough, wet classics-type race is perfect for Dries De Bondt (125/1; 126.0) who was active trying to make the break on stage 8.

Stage 9 Bets

These types of stages seem to go to the break more often than not as GC teams just look to get the day done without any catastrophes, but with Pidcock as the stage favourite and XDS Astana in pink that could be threatened this time. Best to play both scenarios – a few breakaway picks but with a GC saver.

Of the GC men, Primož Roglič probably offers most value as there’s nothing really to suggest he’s out of form and, ordinarily, this type of finish would be right up his street.

Primož Roglič 1pt win and 3 places @22/1

Pello Bilbao 1pt win and 3 places @20/1

Wout van Aert 1pt win and 4 places @20/1 – 1st

Dries De Bondt 0.5pts win and 4 places @125/1


Posted 2143 BST Sat 17th May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 9 Result

1st Wout van Aert (20/1)

2nd Isaac del Toro (18/1)

3rd Giulio Ciccone (33/1)

4th Richard Carapaz (66/1)