Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 11 – Viareggio > Castelnovo ne' Monti (186km)

Wed 21st May | KM0 1220 CET

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Stage 11 Preview

Where: Starting on the Tuscan coast and heading inland into the Apennine Mountains.

 
 

Weather: High teens with a chance of showers in the afternoon.

Stage Type: Designated Hilly, but with a proper mountain pass in the middle of the stage.

Climbs: The first-category Alpe San Pellegrino is a brute – 13.7km at 8.8%, rising to a max of 19% a few km from the top – but is crested halfway through the stage, so its significance depends very much on how it’s ridden. A couple of moderate second-category climbs (11.1km at 4.9% and 5.8km at 5.8%) end the day but those won’t shake out any GC selection.

Start: An unclassified climb in the first 10km could help the breakaway form. If not, the fight could last for a while as it’s mainly flat roads for the next 50km.

Finish: The second-category Pietra di Bismantova (5.8km at 5.8%) peaks with just 5km to go. There’s an uphill section inside the last 2.5km before a downhill and then rising ground at around 4% to the line.

Stage suits: Breakaway riders with a good uphill sprint.

Breakaway chances: Very good, but it depends entirely on what happens behind. The first-category climb is plenty hard enough to put some GC riders into difficulty if the hammer is down.

What will happen?: UAE Team Emirates-XRG are in a very strong position. They have four riders in the top seven on general classification, so they could play some of those cards on the first-category climb which could trigger some moves on the GC and doom the break. That said, we’re only at stage 11 so powders may be kept dry which favours the breakaway to take the stage win.


Stage 11 Contenders

Tom Pidcock (10/1; 11.0) is now 3mins 41secs back on GC which could give him some licence to get up the road, but it’s unlikely. If GC really wasn’t his aim, then he should’ve shipped some time deliberately in the first week to allow him to hoover up some stage wins. As it is, he’s stuck between two stools – he should choose one or the other and stop moaning.

Mathias Vaček (18/1; 19.0) is looking super strong and Lidl-Trek, after Daan Hoole’s TT win, are on an absolute tear-up. If it’s a mega-break then they’d be wise to drop Vaček on the first-category climb, otherwise he’s a strong favourite for the stage win.

Jay Vine (20/1; 21.0) suffered a puncture on the stage 10 TT yet still finished sixth just 37secs behind Daan Hoole. What might have been? Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe saw it as a point of principle not to let him up the road on stage 8 though and the same may happen again.  

Pello Bilbao (20/1; 21.0) has tried to make the break a number of times but it hasn’t quite happened, and this relatively flat start isn’t in his favour. The final, however, looks perfect for him so we might go in again with the Basque man.  

Max Poole (20/1; 21.0) lost a lot of time on the Strade Bianche stage but fought back with an excellent TT that puts him just over 4mins away from GC. It’s unlikely, on a relatively flat start, that he’ll be able to sneak up the road so the price looks skinny.

Luke Plapp (20/1; 21.0) looks like he has diamonds In his legs and will likely be up the road hunting more breakaway stage wins, but will be a marked man from now on in.

Ramain Bardet (22/1; 23.0) we all hope can get a stage win at some point during his final grand tour and this is a big chance. No reason to think he won’t be up the road at every opportunity.

Wout van Aert (22/1; 23.0) is back and after his 20/1 win on stage 9 is a similar price here which is inviting.

Marco Frigo (25/1; 26.0) had the legs to compete on stage 8 but missed the decisive split. He put in an excellent TT on stage 10 but you wonder why – isn’t it better to save your legs for a stage you can actually win? That said, he looks a stage winner waiting to happen.

Christian Scaroni (28/1; 29.0) has been down but is a breakaway threat and the personal maxim to never back an XDS Astana rider has been turned on its head this season.

Nicholas Prodhomme (33/1; 34.0) is going very well so why not get up the road again? If not Prodhomme for Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale, then Andrea Vendrame (33/1; 34.0) knows how to win from a big breakaway.

Georg Steinhauser (40/1; 41.0) was found out on the stiffer gradients on stage 8 but there’s nothing like that in the final here. Low gradient power climbs are perfect for Steinhauser and it’s best to stay onside with this breakaway weapon.

Stage 11 Bets

This one is intriguing – a big climb in the middle of the stage could invite a GC dust-up but given it’s 90km from the finish that’s unlikely. If this stage was in the last few days then we’d no doubt see a kitchen sink approach, but on balance, that probably won’t happen.

So best to go for some breakaway options at half-decent prices:

 

Luke Plapp 1pt win and 4 places @16/1

Pello Bilbao 1pt win and 4 places @20/1

Wout van Aert 1pt win and 4 places@ 22/1

Marco Frigo 1pt win and 4 places @25/1

Georg Steinhauser 0.5pts win and 4 places 40/1


Posted 2037 BST Tue 20th May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 11 Result

1st Richard Carapaz

2nd Isaac del Toro

3rd Giulio Ciccone

4th Tom Pidcock