Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 14 – Treviso > Nova Gorica/Gorizia (195km)

Sat 24th May | KM0 1255 CET

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Stage 14 Preview

Where: Starting in the Veneto region again and heading east for a lap between the conjoined cities of Gorizia in Italy and Nova Gorica over the Slovenian border.

 
 

Weather: Very similar to almost every day of this Giro so far – pleasant temperatures in the high teens with a chance of showers but mainly dry.

Stage Type: Flat, but with some interesting kickers at the end.

Climbs: The fourth-category Goniace/San Martino climb (3.6km at 4.8%) peaks with 40km to go before two sharp ascents at Saver (700m at 8%) that aren’t that much easier than the Monte Berico climb from the day before.

Start: Almost entirely flat for the opening 145km which should allow a break to be controlled.

Finish: There’s about 7km left after the second run up to Saver giving dropped riders a chance to get back on. A series of roundabouts follows but, apart from a kink left to avoid crossing back over the border into Italy, there’s about 1km of straight, flat road to the line.

Stage suits: Sprinters and classics sprinters.

Breakaway chances: Very low. The largely flat terrain simply doesn’t make a successful breakaway very likely. That said, a bigger than expected group did get up the road on stage 13.

What will happen?: A small breakaway will be policed and pegged by sprint teams. Lidl-Trek will likely put the hammer down on the climbs to drop some of the faster men who’ll have a fight to get back on before the finish line where we should see a bunch or reduced bunch sprint.


Stage 14 Contenders

Olav Kooij (2/1; 3.0) won stage 12 though benefited greatly from an excellent leadout by first Edoardo Affini and then Wout van Aert (10/1; 11.0) who made sure Visma Lease a Bike entered that final, crucial corner ahead. Van Aert’s turn in particular was impressive, leading out from the flamme rouge to about the 200m marker. If Kooij struggles on the hills near the end, Van Aert will probably push on and compete for the win himself rather than wait for his fast man.

Mads Pedersen (4/1; 5.0) took his fourth stage win and the ciclamino jersey wearer has never looked so strong. Those hills give Lidl-Trek a chance to make it selective or at least deaden the legs of some faster men, hence the shorter price than usual for Pedersen on a flat finish. The team seem very keen on getting Mathias Vaček (28/1; 29.0) up for a stage win and a similar attack off the front that we saw on stage 13 isn’t out of the question – if there’s hesitation behind, he might be gone.

Kaden Groves (9/2; 5.5) looks to be getting stronger and stronger, even making the front group on stage 13 (with a little help from a particularly sticky bottle at one point), but was dropped off a little too far back on stage 12 and was left with too much to do. Still, if given a better leadout by Alpecin-Deceuninck, Groves definitely has the kick to win.

Casper van Uden (14/1; 15.0) went for another early launch on stage 12 and almost pulled it off, though he doesn’t want to become another Fernando Gaviria who has a liking for going early but effectively just leads others out.

Paul Magnier (25/1; 26.0) was badly positioned on stage 12 and finished eighth but despite his clear talent and speed, the lack of a decent Soudal Quick-Step leadout is making things hard for the youngest rider in the race.

Sam Bennett (40/1; 41.0) again seemed to run out of legs and didn’t make the top 10 on stage 12. He’s also likely to struggle on the hills and be one of those fighting to get back to the front of the race.

Ben Turner (66/1; 67.0) finished an excellent third on stage 12 helped a great deal by winning the race for Kooij’s wheel into the final bend – it can’t be stressed enough how important positioning was on the last sprint stage. He does have a kick but will do well to pull that off again on a straight, flat finish. If the stage gets more selective, however, then Turner is definitely a player.

Orluis Aular (80/1; 81.0) is another who will want the final as hard as possible and now has four top 10s this Giro. He was caught up in the mega-crash in Napoli but his high finish on stage 13 shows he mustn’t have any lasting problems and isn’t without a chance at a big price if it gets selective.  

Stage 14 Bets

All things being equal, this should end in a group sprint but there is just about enough hilly terrain for that script to be ripped up, and with little value in the purer sprinters, it’s worth opposing them here.

With Mads Pedersen so far ahead in the points competition and seemingly very keen on helping others, Lidl-Trek may try to set up Mathias Vaček for a late attack or a reduced group sprint. A few things would need to fall the Czech’s way, but he’s looking super strong and the price is decent enough to have an interest.

Meanwhile, Movistar’s Orluis Aular could get in the frame at big odds if it does get selective.

Mathias Vaček 1pt win and 3 places @28/1

Orluis Aular 0.5pts win and 3 places @80/1 – 4th

Posted 2035 BST Fri 23rd May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 14 Result

1st Kasper Asgreen (250/1)

2nd Kaden Groves (9/2)

3rd Olav Kooij (2/1F)