Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 15 – Fiume Veneto > Asiago (219km)

Sun 25th May | KM0 1135 CET

Profile

Stage 15 Preview

Where: In Italy’s northeastern regions of Veneto and Friuli, touching the southern Dolomites.

 
 

Weather: Low 20˚Cs and looks dry all day.

Stage Type: Mountain.

Climbs: The first-category Monte Grappa climb (25.1km at 5.7%) dominates the stage but is crested 90km from the end so its significance on GC standings could be limited. The second-category climb to Dori (16.4km at 5.4%) comes later on but also doesn’t look tough enough to worry the favourites.

Start: Largely flat which could turn the fight for the break into a bit of a lottery, though there is a very sharp fourth-category 1km climb at 12% after 45km which would help climbers get up the road should it all still be together.

Finish: There’s a further 18km of plateau after the Dori climb is summitted and there’s a 3km downhill run to the line where a fast finish will be handy for those wanting to take the win.

Stage suits: Breakaway riders.

Breakaway chances: Very good but depends very much on how the Monte Grappa climb is ridden as a strong pace from behind could doom the break.

What will happen?: A big, strong break should be able to build enough of a lead, and with the final climb being relatively modest, the GC teams should back off and allow the break to take the day. That said, this profile is very similar to stage 11 where UAE Team Emirates were happy for the break to win but inexplicably kept the gap at 2mins which encouraged other teams to ride for the stage – an invitation Mads Pedersen and Lidl-Trek were happy to accept. On balance, however, this one should end in a breakaway win.


Stage 15 Contenders

For the breakaway

Pello Bilbao (12/1; 13.0) said he wasn’t feeling great in the break on stage 11 but certainly looked pretty decent and was 2/1 favourite in-running which of course counted for nothing in the end as the break was chased down. Will surely try again here and has the sprint to win from a small group should it come to that.

Romain Bardet (18/1; 19.0) looks determined to attack any chance he gets as shown on stage 13 into Vicenza. No reason to think he won’t try to get up the road and would be dangerous but may find some of the younger guns have his beating at a relatively skinny price. If not Bardet for Picnic PostNL, then Max Poole (25/1; 26.0) who is now 5mins 51secs down after a difficult stage on the sterrati, though it’s doubtful if other GC hopefuls will allow him to leapfrog over them.

Giulio Ciccone (20/1; 21.0) lost 16mins on stage 14 after his crash on the slippery cobbles so clearly has leeway to get into breakaways. He looked pretty banged up though and ready to abandon, so the price doesn’t appeal at all.

Luke Plapp (25/1; 26.0) perhaps shouldn’t have admitted after stage 11 that his face pulling and failure to pull turns was a bluff as he won’t be able to play that card again. He was hanging around the back again on stage 14 which yes, he tends to do anyway, but no doubt was also saving his legs for a day in the break here. The flat start also suits his big engine to make the selection and Plapp must be in the pot.

Wout Poels (18/1; 19.0) was in the doomed break on stage 11 but didn’t look the best out of it which is off-putting. Christian Scaroni (33/1; 34.0) having suffered from a fall looked more lively off the front on stage 13 and makes more appeal for XDS Astana at an attractive price.

Lorenzo Fortunato (40/1; 41.0) who should be up there chasing mountain points and Nicola Conci (66/1; 67.0) who was able to stay with the favourites up the brutal Alpe San Pellegrino also appeal for the Kazakh team who are sure to have some kind of representation up the road.

Nicolas Prodhomme (33/1; 34.0) came into the Giro off the back of a win in the Tour of the Alps and has been active in breaks. Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale teammate and two-time Giro stage winner Andrea Vendrame (40/1; 41.0) also appeals on this finish which could reward a wily campaigner.

Jay Vine (40/1; 41.0) would be a weapon from a break should he be allowed to be in one though that’s been prevented so far and he may be called upon to protect his leaders (whoever they are).

Marco Frigo (50/1; 51.0) may have to play domestique to his Israel-Premier Tech team leader, Derek Gee, who has moved up to sixth on GC, but will like the look of this lower gradient plateau final which is good for a rider with an attacking instinct like Frigo.

Georg Steinhauser (50/1; 51.0) is similar to Frigo in that he often seems to do too much in a break but should the stage winner from last year still be in the front group over Monte Grappa then he’d be a big danger.

 

GC Contenders

Isaac del Toro (11/2; 6.5) would be the favourite to see off the others in a sprint from what we’ve seen so far should it come back together but it’ll be interesting to see how the pressure of the maglia rosa weighs on the young Mexican – so far he appears to be dealing with it well but there are an awful lot of mountains still to get over.

Tom Pidcock (14/1; 15.0) has moved up the GC rankings following the carnage on stage 14 and now sits 11th 3mins 58secs off Del Toro. Will he now concentrate on a high GC finish and sacrifice stage winning opportunities? It would be against his instincts but as it stands, he shouldn’t be allowed up the road.

Juan Ayuso (33/1; 34.0) lost more time on his UAE Emirates teammate on stage 14 and admitted he was still struggling from his fall on the sterrati last Sunday so probably still best to swerve.

Primož Roglič (40/1; 41.0) is another who appears to be taking it day by day after falling twice in the last week. His Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe team were a bit more assertive on the front at least on stage 14 which is encouraging for the former Giro winner. But, at 2mins 23secs down, he needs to start making some time up even if that’s just in bonus sprints so surely will challenge Del Toro for the stage win should it come to that which makes his price attractive.

Stage 15 Bets

Given how far the big climb of the day is from the finish, the breakaway is favourite for the win, though we said that on stage 11.

However, plenty of luck will be needed to make the break on the flat start, so let’s throw some darts and see what sticks, and have a little GC saver just in case.

Pello Bilbao 2pts win @12/1

Luke Plapp 1pt win and 4 places @22/1

Christian Scaroni 1pts win and 4 places @28/1 – 3rd

Marco Frigo 0.5pts win and 4 places @33/1

Georg Steinhauser 0.5pts win and 4 places @33/1

Primož Roglič 0.5pts win and 4 places @40/1

Posted 2043 BST Sat 24th May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 15 Result

1st Carlos Verona (40/1)

2nd Florian Stork (150/1)

3rd Christian Scaroni (28/1)

4th Romain Bardet (18/1)