Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 16 – Piazzola sul Brenta > San Valentino (Brentonico) (203km)

Tue 27th May | KM0 1135 CET

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Where: Starting just east of Vicenza and travelling north-west to Trento before a turn to the south taking in two mountain passes near Lake Garda.

 
 

Weather: Obviously, it’ll be colder as they go up and rain is forecast which could make the day even tougher for the riders.

Stage Type: Mountain.

Climbs: A second-category climb in the first half of the stage followed by three first-category – Candriai (10.1km at 7.6%, max. 13%), Santa Barbara (12.7km at 8.3%, max. 14%) and the final summit finish to San Valentino (18.2km at 6.1%, max. 14%). All in all, a proper mountain day with over 4,500m of altitude gain and plenty of steep sections to do serious damage.

Start: Gently rising ground right up to the first climb that peaks after 75km. Lighter climbers wanting to get in the break may need to hitch a ride with a strong rouleur teammate.

Finish: The 6.1% average on San Valentino is slightly misleading as it includes two flattish-to-downhill sections. More accurately it’s 7km at 6.7% followed by 6.5km at 8% and then 2km at 8% to the line.

Stage suits: GC favourites and excellent climbers outside GC contention.

Breakaway chances: Probably below 50/50 given the tactics we’ve seen from Ineos Grenadiers and EF Education EasyPost who seem keen to take stages on early. If similar tactics are employed here then the race could really blow up and the breakaway would have no chance. Either way we should see GC action on the last climb, if not the penultimate, so any rider looking to win from the break will need to be a seriously good climber and have a hefty lead.

What will happen?: The final week and four days out of the next five have an awful lot of climbing in them. Will that make teams a little cautious here on the first of them? Indications are that it won’t, especially if they sense weakness amongst some GC favourites – they’ll want to bury them now rather than risk a recovery later. So, on balance, it’s likely to be a GC day.  


Stage 16 Contenders

Isaac Del Toro (11/4; 3.75) now appears to have the full backing of UAE Team Emirates who declared during the rest day that he had ‘shown he is the strongest rider in the race’ and that ‘our goal is for the team to ride compact around our leader, Isaac’. So, any controversies around shared leadership appear to have been put to bed, for now. The young Mexican has a huge week ahead of him and logic would suggest a drop-off in form is likely, but he hasn’t shown a hint of weakness yet.

Richard Carapaz (13/2; 7.5) looks to be at his fiery best and is a big threat for the overall title. We’re sure to see Carapaz attack at some point during stage 16, but when?

Juan Ayuso (7/1; 8.0) still looks below his best but is still a big danger to win the Giro d’Italia. Were his team’s pronouncements on the rest day a sign that Ayuso really is struggling or a bit of gamesmanship to take the pressure off and use him as an attacking foil? Or a bit of both?

Egan Bernal (22/1; 23.0) is showing great attacking instincts which is fantastic to see given the horrific injuries he suffered from his crash three years ago. Ineos Grenadiers seem to be shaking up the race just for the sake it at times with attacks in some inexplicable places designed, it would seem, just to annoy people. It would be tiring for a team to do that for the rest of this week but good to watch and might just blow the race to pieces.   

Primoz Roglič (28/1; 29.0) fell for a third time in this race on stage 14 and it appears to have been one too many, losing 1min 30secs to his rivals and declaring afterwards that he was just happy to finish the stage. His further participation in the race isn’t guaranteed, so to compete here looks far-fetched.

Antonio Tiberi (80/1; 81.0) was the first to come down on those wet cobbles on Saturday and lost almost 2mins, but fought well the next day and didn’t ship any more. If he’s continued to recover and has no lasting effects from the fall, then the price looks quite big, to make the frame at least.

 

Selected riders for the breakaway

Wout Poels (25/1; 26.0) was one of the strongest ‘non-GC’ riders on the Monte Grappa climb on Sunday and ended the day with the favourites so clearly is one of the most in-form riders not in contention for the overall. Nicola Conci (100/1; 101.0) is another good option for XDS Astana – he attacked at the bottom of Monte Grappa which was possibly a bit unwise given the race dynamics at the time, but his legs look good and is four times the price of Poels.

Giulio Pellizzari (25/1; 26.0) was having to hold back a lot to allow Primož Roglič to catch his wheel at times when the Slovenian was clearly going through misery. If Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe decide to ditch Roglič’s GC bid or indeed if he abandons the race altogether before the stage starts, then Pellizzari would be a big weapon from any breakaway. Best to check the news in the morning – if Roglič is out, then get on Pellizzari.

Max Poole (40/1; 41.0) is just 5mins 51secs off the pink jersey so very much on the bubble of whether he’d be allowed in a breakaway. Poole showed in last year’s Vuelta a España, however, that he has a knack for getting in them. It’s whether he’ll risk the effort knowing that it could fail and then pay for it later on in the stage.

Nicolas Prodhomme (80/1; 81.0) finished fifth on Sunday for the second time this Giro and Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale seem very good at using their stronger riders Dries de Bondt and Dorian Godon to launch him into breaks. No reason to think that won’t happen again.

Luke Plapp (100/1; 101.0) seems very chipper at the moment and even though these mountains look to be at his absolute limit, good legs tend to be what matters in the last week of a grand tour.

Stage 16 Bets

Stage 16 has the profile of a GC day and that’s the most likely outcome, however, a few speculative breakaway picks at decent prices are probably wise in this very unpredictable Giro. Will Del Toro crack or will he crack everyone else? It should be exciting to find out.

Richard Carapaz 1pt win @13/2 – 4th

Max Poole 1pt win and 4 places @40/1

Nicolas Prodhomme 0.5pts win and 4 places @66/1

Nicola Conci 0.5pts win and 4 places @100/1

Luke Plapp 0.5pts win and 4 places @100/1

(Plus Giulio Pellizzari 1pt win and 4 places @16/1 if news comes through that Roglič has abandoned) – 3rd


Posted 2133 BST Mon 26th May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 16 Result

1st Christian Scaroni (150/1)

2nd Lorenzo Fortunato (28/1)

3rd Giulio Pellizzari (16/1)

4th Richard Carapaz (13/2)