Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 17 – San Michele all'Adige (Fondazione Edmund Mach) > Bormio (155km)

Wed 28th May | KM0 1300 CET

Profile

Stage 17 Preview

Where: Starting just north of Trento then up into the Italian Alps near the Swiss border.

 
 

Weather: Warmer than Tuesday and a dry start but with the possibility of rain in the afternoon.

Stage Type: Designated hilly for some reason, but with over 3,500m of altitude gain, it’s very definitely a mountain stage.

Climbs: The second-category Passo del Tonale (15.2km at 6%, max. 9%) comes first before the famous Passo del Mortirolo (12.6km at 7.6%, max. 16%) which is ascended on its ‘easier’ side. The Mortirolo is a steady 8% or so for 9km before a kilometre of flat and then a final 2.5km at 9.5%.

Start: Rising ground from the gun which should make it easier for climber types to get into the breakaway.

Finish: The riders go up again from the bottom of the Mortirolo and sections include an uncategorised kicker of around 1.5km at 7% and then the third-category climb to Le Motte (3km at 8%, max. 13%) before a 9km descent to the line.

Stage suits: GC favourites and excellent climbers outside of GC contention.

Breakaway chances: Very good. Unlike stage 16, the parcours lends itself to a breakaway stacked with very good climbers, including no doubt, some satellite riders for GC teams. After that, it all depends on what happens behind and how soon, but they’ll certainly have a chance especially as the final 48km after cresting the Mortirolo don’t look the hardest.  

What will happen?: A strong break will get up the road before the first climb and then EF Education EasyPost will drive a hard pace on the Mortirolo to exploit some of the weaknesses exposed on stage 16. There’s potential for some kind of regrouping in the final third and perhaps alliances to put time into others, however, the profile makes a breakaway win more likely than not.


Stage 17 Contenders

For the breakaway

Tom Pidcock (18/1; 19.0) lies 16th at 8mins 35secs down so now has freedom to get up the road and hunt a stage win. Once there, he’d be one of the best climbers, descenders, puncheurs and sprinters in the group, hence his price.

Wout Poels (20/1; 21.0) and Nicola Conci (66/1; 67.0) were two of the XDS Astana riders not to make the break on stage 16, so after the team’s brilliant 1-2 finish, it would make sense that these guys try here. Conci rolled in last on stage 16 which hopefully means he’s saving his legs for this as again, he makes more appeal at the prices.  

Pello Bilbao (28/1; 29.0) was a strong favourite in-running on stage 16 but when the action kicked off in earnest the Basque man surprisingly fell out the back of the telly. He did hit the ground in the Tiberi/Roglič crash on Saturday so maybe he’s still feeling the effects or simply doesn’t have the legs. Either way, there’s no logical reason to go in with him again here.

Romain Bardet (28/1; 29.0) is still looking for a stage win in his final grand tour but the Team Picnic PostNL rider at a more attractive price is Max Poole (33/1; 34.0) who, at 7mins 34secs off the lead, might get some leeway to sneak up the road. Poole looked good when attacking off the front of the favourites with Storer on stage 16 but paid for that effort and slipped back on GC. Here’s a chance to leapfrog back up again.

Juan Ayuso (33/1; 34.0) dramatically fell out of contention for the Giro d’Italia on Tuesday. Will he now be a loyal domestique to Del Toro or take his own chances in breakaways? The latter is more likely given the rumours of discontent in the camp and with Del Toro now looking unlikely to keep the pink jersey all the way to Rome, UAE Team Emirates will want to get something more out of the race.

That said, he’s not attractive at the price given the fact he’s clearly injured and/or lacking form and it would take a huge mental effort to switch to stage hunting so quickly after such a disappointment. That’s not to say others from the team won’t get a pass for the break and of them Jay Vine (50/1; 51.0) makes the most appeal.

Nicolas Prodhomme (33/1; 34.0) didn’t go for the breakaway on stage 16 surmising it would be a wasted effort on a so-called GC day. But he should try here and the rising road from the gun is a help. Numbers are always good in a break and Andrea Vendrame (66/1; 67.0) will like the look of the final though the mountain in the middle not so much.

Luke Plapp (33/1; 34.0) declared he was going to take it easy on Tuesday, so may be after getting up the road here. If not Plapp, then Chris Harper (80/1; 81.0), who was sick earlier in the race, is another option for Jayco AlUla and he is the better climber on paper though perhaps not with the better legs.

Marco Frigo (40/1; 41.0) is another who would be dangerous in the last 50km if he hasn’t been dropped by the better climbers and no doubt those better climbers will know it.

Embret Svestad-Bårdseng (150/1; 151.0) is a new name who is quietly having a very consistent and impressive Giro. Eighth in the Tour de l’Avenir the year that Del Toro won, the young Norwegian is yet to win a bike race at pro level but may give us an interest at triple-figure odds for a long way if in the break.

 

GC favourites

Isaac del Toro (15/2; 8.5) fought bravely to keep the maglia rosa, but for how long? He certainly looks vulnerable, making the 15/2 odds about him unappealing.

Richard Carapaz (12/1; 13.0) will be smelling blood after his exceptional performance on stage 16. He’ll be looking to take every opportunity to hurt his rivals, the next being the Mortirolo where we can surely expect another stinging attack from the Ecuadorian. Can anyone stay with him?

Giulio Pellizzari (16/1; 17.0) would be a shoo-in for a breakaway win on stage 17 had he not ridden so well on stage 16 and risen up to ninth on GC. The talented young Italian won’t be allowed up the road, so a similar late attack where he’s given some rope is his best shot.

Derek Gee (33/1; 34.0) was able to steal more time on the GC on stage 16 and now looks one of the strongest riders in the race. Similarly to Pellizzari, a late attack that isn’t immediately followed is the Canadian’s best option for a stage win.  

Michael Storer (40/1; 41.0) managed to crash again on stage 16 (for the fourth time) but declared afterwards, despite a fat lip, that, for the first time since Naples, his legs were good. If he can rediscover his form from the Tour of the Alps, then Storer can’t be ruled out for a podium finish in this Giro.

Simon Yates (66/1; 67.0) sits only 26secs off the pink jersey and is now the 3/1 second favourite to win the Giro (behind Carapaz at 4/6), but he couldn’t match the Ecuadorian on stage 16 and Gee and Storer appeared to finish stronger, so a turnaround will be needed.

Stage 17 Bets

It does feel like the break has a much better chance of staying away than they did on stage 16 (where they shipped 8mins in the final 50km to hang on by just 55secs). So there’s a familiar look to the picks with some breakaway options as well as a GC saver.

 

Richard Carapaz 1pt win @11/1 –3rd

Max Poole 1pt win and 4 places @33/1 – 9th

Nicolas Prodhomme 1pt win and 4 places @33/1

Luke Plapp 1pt win and 4 places @33/1

Nicola Conci 0.5pts win and 4 places @66/1

Embret Svestad-Bårdseng 0.5pts win and 4 places @150/1

Posted 2147 BST Tue 27th May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 17 Result

1st Isaac del Toro (15/2F)

2nd Romain Bardet (28/1)

3rd Richard Carapaz (11/1)

4th Simon Yates (66/1)