Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 18 – Morbegno > Cesano Maderno (144km)

Thu 29th May | KM0 1400 CET

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Where: Starting just east of Lake Como and running along its banks in the first third of the stage before heading south to finish with two laps of a street circuit around Cesano Maderno, just north of Milan.

 
 

Weather: A lot warmer and dryer with temperatures in the mid-20˚Cs.

Stage Type: Flat, but with some lumps in the first half.

Climbs: Three categorized climbs – Parlasco (7.6km at 6.2%, max. 11%%), Colle Balisio (3km at 4.2%) and Ravellino (8.2km at 4.6%).

Start: Flat for 30km and then up the first climb. Sprint teams looking to control the day will hope the break goes in the plain, otherwise the chances are it’ll be too strong to bring back.

Finish: Quite a technical criterium-like finish on a flat street circuit with the final corner a 90-degree right-hander about 700m from the line.

Stage suits: Sprinters, classics sprinters and rouleurs.

Breakaway chances: Decent. We’ve seen umpteen of these in grand tours – a so-called flat stage at the back end of the third week where depleted sprint teams just don’t have the legs to catch the break. This parcours is perfect for something similar. We should know early if sprint teams are keen to send someone up the road, if not then it might come back together.

What will happen?: It depends on the make-up of the breakway. If a small, controllable break goes early then we should see a bunch finish. If not, a breakaway win is the most likely.


Stage 18 Contenders

Olav Kooij (11/4; 3.75) is the fastest in a straight line on a standard flat stage but, in the third week of a grand tour, the price doesn’t appeal at all. If not Kooji for Visma Lease a Bike, then Wout van Aert (8/1; 9.0) would be both a weapon and a marked man in a break. The chat on the start line will be crucial.

Kaden Groves (7/2; 4.5) is climbing well and there’s a chance that Alpecin-Deceuninck will control to set up a sprint for Groves. We should see early what the tactics are.

Mads Pedersen (9/2; 5.5) is still looking super strong and he’ll fancy this either from the break or a sprint. Lidl-Trek teammate Mathias Vaček (25/1; 26.0) was up in the break for a long way on stage 17 and it’s a bit of a travesty that the Czech hasn’t won a stage in this Giro – realistically, this his last chance.

 

For the breakaway:

Dries De Bondt (50/1; 51.0) has been off the front in the breaks which it seems was because he was after intermediate sprint points rather than help his climber-type teammates.

Edoardo Affini (80/1; 81.0) might be put to work to pull things back for Kooij, but if he’s given a pass and got up the road then would be difficult to bring back.

Max Kanter (80/1; 81.0) is another sprinter/rouleur type that could get a head start and make it very difficult for sprint teams to peg back.

Edward Planckaert (200/1; 201.0) has been impressive off the front and if he isn’t working for Groves then is a good card for the break.

Stage 18 Bets

This is a really intriguing stage – if it was in the first week then a bunch finish would be almost guaranteed but deep in the third week, who knows?

Stage 18 in the 2022 Giro d’Italia had a very similar profile and was a big day for us with a 1-2 for De Bondt and Affini at 40/1 and 150/1 respectively. So, as the two owe us nothing, let’s go in with them again.

 

If it comes back together for a bunch sprint then let them win at the prices.

 

Dries De Bondt 0.5pts win and 3 places @ 50/1 – 6th

Edoardo Affini 0.5pts win and 3 places @80/1

Edward Planckaert 0.5pts win and 3 places @200/1 – 3rd


Posted 2141 BST Wed 28th May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 18 Result

1st Nico Denz

2nd Mirco Maestri

3rd Edward Planckaert