Tour de France 2025

Weather: Pleasant temperatures in the mid-high teens and dry with a north-westerly breeze of around 15km/h (gusting 40km/h) which will be a cross-tailwind for the first 100km (and therefore potential for echelons though 15km/h is probably not quite strong enough) before becoming more of a block-headwind into the finish.

Stage Type: Hilly.

Climbs: Five classified climbs all packed into the final 50km and relentlessly up and down for the last 30km where the riders tackle Côte de Belbeuf (1.3km at 9.1%), Côte de Bonsecours (0.9km at 7.2%), Côte de la Grand’Mare (1.8km at 5%) and finally Rampe Saint-Hilaire (0.8km at 10.6%) which peaks just 5km from the line and where we’ll definitely see some attacks.

Start: Rolling terrain which suits rouleurs should they wish to get up the road.

Finish: A left-hander just after the flamme rouge where it ramps up one last time before flattening off for the final 250m.  

Stage suits: Puncheurs and general classification riders with explosivity uphill.

Breakaway chances: Unlikely. It has a chance should a strong group get away that are no threat to the yellow jersey, but the possibility of echelons in the first part of the race and the willingness of GC teams to push the pace early mean the stage is definitely tilted against them.

What will happen: A similar story to stage 2 though we may see a bit more of a fight for the break than we’ve seen so far. The pace will be ramped up in the final 30km where positioning will be vital and selections will be made over each climb. With little or no time to get back on, we’re likely see a reduced group come to the line or maybe even a solo win.

Stage 4 Contenders

Mathieu van der Poel (5/4; 2.25) won stage 2 which had a similar profile and will also want to stay in yellow. Alpecin-Deceuninck will be looking to bounce back after losing Jasper Philipsen in that awful crash.

Tadej Pogačar (7/2; 4.50) was pipped by Van der Poel on stage 2 but is the fastest finisher of the GC men. That final wall climb is very tough – could he even ride away solo?

Jonas Vingegaard (14/1; 15.0) finished third on stage 2 and we sometimes forget how fast he is on the line. He’ll be following Pogačar if possible, so could be in the frame again.

Romain Grégoire (14/1; 15.0) was a stage bet at 70/1 and narrowly missed out on a place. There’s no 70s about him now, however, as everyone can see he’s come into the race with super legs.

Kévin Vauquelin (16/1; 17.0) was the other pick on stage 2 and for a moment in the final kilometres, when there was hesitation amongst the favourites, it looked like he might slip away with Matteo Jorgenson. The attack fizzled out though and he ended up doing too much work which left nothing for the sprint. Like Grégoire, he’s on stellar form and should be there or thereabouts again.

Wout van Aert (33/1; 34.0) is clearly in recovery mode after being sick and just keeping himself out of trouble. Could he bounce back here? It’s possible, but to win after showing absolutely nothing seems a stretch.

Matteo Jorgenson (40/1; 41.0) admitted after stage 2 that he should’ve committed and worked with Vauquelin to set up a possible stage win and steal a bit of time on GC. Who knows if it would’ve paid off, but he certainly looks in super shape and may get licence to try something late on.  

Oscar Onley (40/1; 41.0) was triple figures for stage 2 but there are no secrets anymore – the young Scot is on great form, has a punch and a fast finish.

For the breakaway:

Quinn Simmons (150/1; 151.0) won a stage at the Tour de Suisse last month and generally looked on brilliant form. He’s been on domestique duty so far, but Lidl-Trek have had a disappointing start and may give the US champion licence to get up the road.

Mauro Schmid (150/1; 151.0) was another standout rider from the Tour de Suisse but has mainly hung around the back of the peloton so far to save his legs for potential breakaway days of which this is (possibly) the first.

Stage 4 Bets

The value has gone on the stage 2 picks, Romain Grégoire and Kévin Vauquelin, and looking at the contenders listed, the 40s about Matteo Jorgenson probably appeals the most. It would have to get a bit tactical though, which is difficult to predict.

On balance, this looks like another one for Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar with the pick this time going to the Slovenian at the bigger price who might just skip away on that final ramp.

Is it worth having a bit of a play on the breakaway? It doesn’t really feel like a day for the break, but the prices on the two above are tempting so let’s have a small interest for fun.

Tadej Pogačar 1pt win @7/2 (4.50) - 1st

Quinn Simmons 0.25pts win and 3 places @150/1

Mauro Schmid 0.25pts win and 3 places @150/1

Posted 2148 BST Mon 7th July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 4 Result