Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 6 – Potenza > Napoli (227km)

Thu 15th May | KM0 1150 CET

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Where: From the southern region of Basilicata heading northwest to Napoli for the longest stage of the race.

 
 

Weather: Same again – low 20˚Cs with a chance of rain in the afternoon which, so far, the riders have managed to dodge.

Stage Type: Designated flat but with a hilly start.

Climbs: The near 20km second-category Valico di Monte Carruozzo is relatively shallow at an average of just 3.8% though some steep sections could make it tricky to police the numbers in a break, assuming it hasn’t gone already. The end of the hills comes with the third-category Monteforte Irpino (6.9km at 3.1%) which peaks with over 80km to go so sprint teams have plenty of time to get organised and start chasing.

Start: A short uphill rise followed by a 20km descent, then straight into the Valico di Monte Carruozzo climb.

Finish: Along the bay front in Naples and includes a slight rise over cobblestones following a left turn inside the last 3km. The final turn is outside the flamme rouge before a straight, flat run to the line.

Stage suits: Sprinters and possibly breakaway riders.

Breakaway chances: We haven’t seen a huge appetite for breakaways so far with riders clearly keeping their powder dry for better chances ahead. Is this one of those days? Certainly, we could see a strong group get up the road on the first climb which would be difficult to bring back. The near 60km of flat road before the finish isn’t in their favour, however.

What will happen?: There are a few possibilities, but most likely sprint teams will try to police as manageable a break as possible – which may be difficult given the early climb – before bringing it all back together for a bunch sprint. But don’t rule out a break forming that’s too unwieldy to control.


Stage 6 Contenders

Olav Kooij (6/4; 2.5) more than likely has more pure speed than his rivals but that doesn’t mean you automatically win as was shown on stage 4. This more straightforward final makes it more likely that his advantage will be telling, especially if Wout van Aert can be added to his leadout.

Mads Pedersen (7/1; 8.0) is having an unbelievable Giro but will probably find a couple faster than him on this flat finish. There is terrain, however, in the first two-thirds of the stage, for Lidl-Trek to shake out or at least severely tire the other sprinters. Lidl-Trek have lost Søren Kragh Andersen for the leadout though Mathias Vaček is riding like two men at the moment.

Kaden Groves (15/2; 8.5) started from a bad position but came home with a lot of speed on stage 4 which is encouraging after his injury troubles earlier in the year. The double circuit finish complicated things for Alpecin-Deceuninck who, in trying to keep Groves near the front, seemed to burn through their men too quickly and were left short when it mattered. They’ll be looking to put that right here.

Sam Bennett (9/1; 10.0) was boxed in when carrying decent speed on stage 4 that probably prevented him making the frame. He’s really struggled as soon as the road’s gone up so the first half of the stage will not be to his liking.

Casper van Uden (9/1; 10.0) pulled off a surprise win on the stage into Lecce with an excellent ambush leadout into the final corner. It’ll be difficult (though not impossible) for Picnic PostNL to pull that off again on this more straightforward finish.

Matteo Moschetti (16/1; 17.0) was on the ground on stage 4 but got up for a top 10 finish though never threatened the places despite what looked a pretty clear run.  

Milan Fretin (18/1; 19.0) battled well and had Kooij’s wheel in the final 200m of stage 4 but couldn’t follow and finished just outside the top 10. It’s difficult to see how that would be reversed.

Paul Magnier (20/1; 21.0) but for getting squeezed out by Bennett would’ve improved on his seventh place. If Soudal Quick-Step can get a good leadout going then Magnier does have a chance and the price is tempting. Would we just be playing for a place, though?

Maikel Zijlaard (33/1; 34.0) positioned himself well behind Van Uden on stage 4 but couldn’t get round him. It seems unlikely he’ll improve on his third place here.

Stage 6 Bets

Favourites are having a good time of it and all being equal it’s difficult to see past Olav Kooij for the win to make it 5 out of 6. That doesn’t sound like the Giro though where surprises are often the norm.

So, let’s go in again with the fast youngster Paul Magnier at a more appealing price and hope for a full leadout and a clear run.  

Paul Magnier 0.5pts win and 3 places @20/1 – 3rd

Posted 2331 BST Wed 14th May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 6 Result

1st Kaden Groves (15/2)

2nd Milan Fretin (18/1)

3rd Paul Magnier (20/1)