Tour de France 2025

Weather: Warm and dry with a gentle northeasterly breeze.

Stage Type: Hilly.

Climbs: Six classified climbs spread across the day with the final fourth-category Côte de Vaudry (1.2km at 7.2%, max. 13%) which peaks just 4km from the line likely to be critical in deciding the day’s winner.

Start: Rolling terrain until the foot of the third-category Côte du Mont Pinçon (5.6km at 3.7%) 30km in makes it much more favourable for a strong breakaway to form.

Finish: A sharp rise to the line in the final 700m.  

Stage suits: Puncheurs and breakaway specialists.

Breakaway chances: Very good. UAE Team Emirates are in yellow with Pogačar, but they probably wouldn’t mind loaning the jersey out until next week. So, who’s going to chase all day on such a tough parcours? Alpecin-Deceuninck for Mathieu van der Poel maybe, but the better option would be for him to go in the break.

What will happen: A big strong group gets up the road and is allowed to compete for the win. With such a punchy final, however, there’ll still be action behind from the GC men, so we should see two races in one.

Stage 6 Contenders

From the general classification:

Tadej Pogačar (5/2; 3.5) should come home first amongst the GC contenders, so if it all comes back together, he’s likely to win another stage. Either way, with Jonas Vingegaard showing some vulnerability in the time trial, he’s bound to try something in that difficult final.

Jonas Vingegaard (18/1; 19.0) will be troubled after his TT performance and cannot show any weaknesses here. He needs to stay with Pogačar, but even if they’re fighting for the stage win, you’re probably only playing for the place.

Oscar Onley (33/1; 34.0) has proven that he’s one of the best climbers and fastest finishers out of the GC men but again, a win with Pogačar around looks unlikely.

For the breakaway:

Mathieu van der Poel (11/2; 6.5) can try to win either from the break or sit with the favourites and get his team to bring the break back. The former is probably the best option and also gives him a chance of leapfrogging back into the yellow jersey. Being the clear favourite in that scenario, he’d be lent on heavily and forced to chase down attacks so it won’t be straightforward.

Romain Grégoire (18/1; 19.0) has continued his excellent form from the Tour de Suisse and French nationals. If he makes the break, he’ll be one of the favourites and even if not, has a shot if he stays with the main group.

Wout van Aert (28/1; 29.0) has been quiet, recovering from a stomach bug picked up a week before the race, but at some point, as he did in the Giro d’Italia, we’ll see the real Van Aert and he’ll likely win a stage. It might be a bit too soon to expect that yet but we need to keep him in mind and pounce at the right time.

Mauro Schmid (30/1; 31.0) has been hanging around the back of the peloton most of the race but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him on the bumper of the race director’s car this time.

With the absence of GC contender Richard Carapaz, EF Education-EasyPost come into the race hunting stages and will definitely have representation in the break. They have several options:

Neilson Powless (25/1; 26.0) was active in breaks at the Tour de Suisse and will be looking to get up the road. Ben Healy (28/1; 29.0) wasn’t too present at the Critérium du Dauphiné and we haven’t seen much of him here yet but he’s no doubt biding his time for a day like this. But Alex Baudin (50/1; 51.0) at a bigger price offers the best value. He was excellent at the Dauphiné and even had a good finish on the punchy stage 4.

Selected others:

Quinn Simmons (66/1; 67.0) won a stage from the break recently at the Tour de Suisse. He may be asked to shepherd Mathias Skjelmose into the final but would be a big threat at an attractive price if given licence to get up the road.

Iván Romeo (80/1; 81.0) was a stage winner from a break in the Dauphiné and put in an excellent TT showing he isn’t too fatigued on his grand tour debut.

Louis Barré (125/1; 126.0) has had a very good season – third in a stage at the Dauphiné, fourth at the Tour de Romandie and sixth at the Amstel Gold Race. He might give us a good run for our money at triple-figure odds.

Stage 6 Bets

This is definitely the best chance we’ve had so far of a breakaway win but, as ever, it’s far from certain. Having Romain Grégoire in the mix is potentially a saver if he isn’t in the break and it all comes back together, but the others need to get up the road and hope they’re allowed to stay away.

Note – try and take the extra fourth place if available where the price hasn’t been compromised too much. In this case, they were taken on Baudin and Barré but not Grégoire, Schmid or Simmons as the prices were much shorter. Either way, it’s important to shop around to make sure you get the best value.

Romain Grégoire 1pt win and 3 places @18/1

Mauro Schmid 1pt win and 3 places @30/1

Alex Baudin 0.5pts win and 4 places @33/1

Quinn Simmons 0.5pts win and 3 places @66/1 - 2nd

Louis Barré 0.5pts win and 4 places @150/1

Posted 2257 BST Wed 9th July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 6 Result