Tour de France 2025

Weather: Hot – heading up to 30˚C – and dry with a gentle easterly breeze.

Stage Type: Hilly.

Climbs: Three classified climbs in total but back-to-back ascents of the Mûr-de-Bretagne (2km at 6.9%, max 13.5%) in the final 20km are where all the action will be.

Start: Relatively flat and rolling terrain favours the bigger rouleurs to make the break.

Finish: At the top of the second ascent of the Mûr-de-Bretagne. A 500m section near the foot of the climb averages about 12% before it levels off towards the top, so timing is crucial if attacking for the stage win.

Stage suits: Puncheurs and general classification riders.

Breakaway chances: Below 50/50. This parcours is much less hilly throughout the day than stage 6 and therefore will be easier to control which is good news for Alpecin-Deceuninck who will try to defend the yellow jersey. Moreover, this finish is quite iconic so it will be a prestigious win for whoever gets their hands in the air.

What will happen: Plenty of teams haven’t won a stage and know they don’t stand a chance against the big boys in this finish, so there should still be quite a big fight for the break. Once established, Alpecin-Deceuninck should ride but UAE Team Emirates may push the pace on the front for the final 30km. In the end, we’ll see GC contenders and puncheurs in a reduced bunch sprint or solo attack to the line.

Stage 7 Contenders

Tadej Pogačar (5/4; 2.25) looks unbeatable when it gets selective – the win looks like it’s his for the taking.

Mathieu van der Poel (11/2; 6.5) won here four years ago but was on his knees on the climb to the line on stage 6 and looks like he needs a day off.  

Jonas Vingegaard (12/1; 13.0) needs to stay with Pogačar but even if he does is unlikely to beat him on the line.

Romain Grégoire (18/1; 19.0) has managed to have a couple of easier days compared to others which might allow him to get closer to Pogačar.

Wout van Aert (25/1; 26.0) tried to get up the road for the first time on stage 6 but after being caught went out the back door pretty quickly. The profile of the final very much suits but he’d need to be at his best to win, and he isn’t.   

Oscar Onley (40/1; 41.0) was in the mix yet again with the main GC contenders on stage 6 and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case again.   

Kévin Vauquelin (40/1; 41.0) sits effectively third on GC and it’ll be interesting to see for how long he can stay up there. A GC top 10 looks very possible, though that may mean sacrificing the chance of a stage win.

Remco Evenepoel (50/1; 51.0) is a big price considering who he is and how his attributes suit these short, sharp ascents, but he’s finding others a bit better and quicker at the moment. A place a definite possibility though.

Selected others for the breakaway:

Mauro Schmid (50/1; 51.0) tried briefly to get off the front on stage 6 but failed and is yet to show his form from the Tour de Suisse but could try again here.

Iván Romeo (150/1; 151.0) was in a foiled breakaway move on stage 6 and his rouleur qualities should help him make the break.  

Louis Barré (150/1; 151.0) was surprisingly absent from the action on stage 6 but had the form a month ago to challenge from breaks.

Stage 7 Bets

It’s very difficult to look past Tadej Pogačar for the stage win though of course his odds are restrictive. So, for a bit more value, Groupama-FDJ missed the break on stage 6 so will be motivated to put that right here and Romain Grégoire could go close.

The break isn’t without a chance so just in case, let’s have a play at big prices with the fellas above.

Romain Grégoire 1pt win and 3 places @18/1

Mauro Schmid 0.5pts win and 3 places @50/1

Iván Romeo 0.25pts win and 3 places @150/1

Louis Barré 0.25pts win and 3 places @150/1

Posted 2131 BST Thu 10th July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 7 Result