Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 7 – Castel di Sangro > Tagliacozzo (168km)

Fri 16th May | KM0 1255 CET

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Stage 7 Preview

Where: Moving northwards through the Apennine Mountains in central Italy.

 
 

Weather: Much cooler as you’d expect with a chance of rain throughout the day.

Stage Type: Mountain.

Climbs: Up a third-category climb (roughly 7km at 6%) from the gun then, after a long descent, the tough-looking second-category to Monte Urano (4.5km at 9.4%) followed by the very long second-category Vado della Forcella (21.6km at 3.6%). But the decisive climb will be the last one – the first-category summit finish to Tagliacozzo (11.9km at 5.5%).

Start: More or less all uphill for the opening 22km or so giving non-GC climbers a chance to form a strong break.

Finish: The basic numbers of the final climb – 11.9km at 5.5% – are not daunting but there’s a 2km section near the top which averages over 10% and is where we should see some GC action. It levels off in the final 300m so if gaps aren’t made, a sprint will be handy.

Stage suits: General classification contenders and climbers out of the GC picture.

Breakaway chances: 50/50. The start of the stage offers the possibility of a strong break, and the relatively easy final climb gives them a chance to stay away.

What will happen?: This is the first chance for the GC men to test their climbing legs and for us to get an idea of the hierarchy. Are any of the teams confident enough to ride and set up their leader for the final? The most likely candidates – Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe and UAE Team Emirates-XRG – were both depleted by the stage 6 crash so it’s not clear if any team will put the hammer down early which makes a breakaway win possible.


Stage 7 Contenders

Primož Roglič (7/2; 4.5) somehow avoided the big crash on stage 6 but his teammates weren’t so lucky. Jai Hindley was the first to go down and abandoned the race with concussion. Dani Martínez could be seen hobbling away and purportedly Giovanni Aleotti and Jan Tratnik also came down, though both looked largely unscathed. So, despite Roglič being in de facto pink, it’s unlikely Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe will take the race on. If it ends in a GC sprint though, Roglič has won a ton of them.

Tom Pidcock (9/1; 10.0) is looking sprightly and an attack on the steep section of the final climb looks nailed on.

Juan Ayuso (22/1; 23.0) was probably still suffering after his small tumble on stage 1 and shipped 16secs to Roglič on the short stage 2 time trial which would’ve been disappointing. We should get a better idea of where his form is here.  

Michael Storer (25/1; 26.0) had diamonds in his legs when winning the Tour of the Alps last month. How deep can his GC challenge go here? He can’t match the fast finish of some of his rivals and going clear solo seems unlikely.

Isaac del Toro (25/1; 26.0) looked good for landing us at least a place at 100/1 before running into the back of Storer on stage 4. But enough of the hard luck stories, Del Toro has another chance here if he can stick with the very best at the top of the climb.

Brandon McNulty (100/1; 101.0) is another card for UAE Team Emirates-XRG at an attractive price.

Giulio Ciccone (25/1; 26.0) has already put some shifts in to help Mads Pedersen in the opening week but has top 5 GC hopes himself. Ciccone is punchy with a sprint so this final suits.

 

For the breakaway

Lorenzo Fortunato (18/1; 19.0) will be up the road hoovering up more mountains points but was bandaged up pretty good on stage 6.

Christian Scaroni (18/1; 19.0) apparently also came down alongside his teammate Fortunato which makes his price unappealing, though he has been in good form this season.

Pello Bilbao (25/1; 26.0) has already tried one dig off the front on stage 3 and has been shipping time since the start – he now sits over 14mins off GC – so his intentions seem clear.

Nicholas Prodhomme (40/1; 41.0) took his first win as a pro from a break in last month’s Tour of the Alps (though it was ‘gifted’ to him to a certain extent by his young teammate Paul Seixas) so should be looking to get up the road.

Mattia Cattaneo (100/1; 101.0) was here as a mountain domestique for Mikel Landa’s GC bid. That’s all over and with Josef Cerny’s further participation looking in doubt things aren’t going too well for Soudal Quick-Step. So Cattaneo, who rode well in Tirreno-Adriatico, might as well get up the road.

Stage 7 Bets

Given that the two strongest teams are banged up, it’s worth playing both scenarios here in case the breakaway takes the day.

Isaac del Toro 1pt win and 4 places @25/1 – 2nd

Pello Bilbao 1pt win and 4 places @22/1

Nicholas Prodhomme 0.5pts win and 4 places @40/1

Mattia Cattaneo 0.5pts win and 4 places @80/1

Posted 2116 BST Thu 15th May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 7 Result

1st Juan Ayuso (22/1)

2nd Isaac del Toro (25/1)

3rd Egan Bernal (66/1)

4th Primož Roglič (7/2F)