Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 8 – Giulianova > Castelraimondo (197km)

Sat 17th May | KM0 1225 CET

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Where: Starting on the eastern coast in the Abruzzo region and travelling north-west through the central Apennines.

 
 

Weather: Mid to high teens and dry.

Stage Type: Hilly.

Climbs: Four categorized climbs and a few more that are unclassified. The toughest and most decisive climbs will be the first-category Sassotetto (13.1km at 7.4%) bang in the middle of the stage, the third-category Montelago (5.5km at 6.8%), the unclassified rise to Castel Santa Maria (approx. 3.5km at 4.5% but with a 1.5km section in double digits) and finally the fourth-category climb to Gagliole (0.7km at 10.5%) which crests with under 6km to go.

Start: Steadily rising ground for the first 25km on which we’re likely to see a big fight for the break. If it doesn’t go here, then we’ll have to wait for the third-category climb of Croce di Casale (7.7km at 4.5%) which starts just after the 50km mark.  

Finish: Narrow, twisty roads with those two sharp climbs of Castel Santa Maria and Gagliole inside the final 25km.

Stage suits: Breakaway riders who can get over the relentless climbs and ideally a punch to make a difference on the sharp slopes near the end.

Breakaway chances: Very good. The stage isn’t hard enough for GC riders and too hard for your average sprinter, so no team is likely to control unless a genuine GC threat gets up the road. Moreover, Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe probably wouldn’t mind loaning the pink jersey out until next weekend if given the opportunity to do so.

What will happen?: With everyone knowing the break has a great chance of staying away, we should see a big scrap to make it in. It wouldn’t be a surprise if it took until the Sassotetto climb to form, in which case, purer climbers will be favoured over puncheur/rouleurs. Either way, we ought to see our first breakaway win.


Stage 8 Contenders

Tom Pidcock (9/1; 10.0) is the bookie’s favourite, however, as a GC-threat, albeit an outside one, it would be a surprise if he was allowed in the break and Q36.5 are very unlikely to control all day, so it’s probably best to leave him out for this, especially with Sunday’s stage suiting him much better.

Mathias Vaček (12/1; 13.0) at just 37secs behind, still has eyes on the pink jersey and he could take it here from the break. Mads Pedersen (20/1; 21.0) could also be up the road to return the favour for some of Vaček’s hard work in the first week or even his own chances, though he’s surely going to run into a few punchier climbers at the end and is no doubt still suffering from his tumble on stage 6. If allowed off domestique duties, Patrick Konrad (150/1; 151.0) is also a decent option for Lidl-Trek at a big price.

Edoardo Zambanini (16/1; 17.0) came close to a win on stage 5 and, if not asked to stay with his GC leader, Antonio Tiberi, we could see him up the road. Bahrain-Victorious teammate, Pello Bilbao (28/1; 29.0), hovered around the front of nascent breaks on stage 7 but didn’t make the jump – is he struggling or just biding his time?

Jay Vine (25/1; 26.0) had a few hit outs to make the day’s break on stage 7, no doubt to test the mettle of Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe who would’ve been nursing a few wounds from the previous day. Nothing to say he won’t try again here and his price has tumbled since the market opened.

Andrea Vendrame (33/1; 34.0) has won two stages of the Giro in the past, both on parcours that looked a bit hilly for him and could go for a repeat. Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale teammate, Nicholas Prodhomme (80/1; 81.0) had a hard day out in the break on stage 7 but he looks strong and may try his luck again at good odds.

Christian Scaroni (33/1; 34.0) was in the break with Prodhomme but was seen taking painkillers from the medical car at one point which is a reason to stay away. So too Lorenzo Fortunato (40/1; 41.0) who, like Scaroni, came down in the mass crash on stage 6 and was bandaged up. Wout Poels (50/1; 51.0) might be a better option for XDS Astana. He was sniffing around the break on stage 7 and warmed up with stage and outright wins at the Tour of Turkey a few weeks ago, albeit against a different standard of opposition.

Marco Frigo (40/1; 41.0) won at the Tour of the Alps last month and is a breakaway weapon for Israel PremierTech, though we haven’t seen much of him yet – hopefully he’ll be allowed the option to go for his own chances here.

Wout van Aert (40/1; 41.0) looks a big price considering who we’re talking about. He’s been sick of course, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he gave it a dig.  

Mattia Cattaneo (66/1; 67.0) seemed to be hanging around the back of the peloton on stage 7 – was he another that went down off-camera on stage 6 or just staying out of trouble? .

Koen Bouwman (66/1; 67.0) is here to help his team leader though may be given some licence. He rode well at the Tour of the Alps and is a double Giro stage winner. Talking of doubles, Paul Double (66/1; 67.0), was in the break on stage 7 and is now in contention for the mountains jersey so he’s another option for Jayco AlUla.

Georg Steinhauser (200/1; 201.0) has been quiet so far but could be keeping his powder dry for breakaway stages and must be in the pot at the price.

… and many more.

Stage 8 Bets

We don’t have a definitive list of who was down in the big crash on stage 6, but it was sure to be more than the 40 or so riders that were either seen in the TV coverage or were reported afterwards. So we have to take a chance that some of these may have been affected in some way.

We’re having our first big hit out here, so something had better land!

 

Pello Bilbao 1pt win and 3 places @28/1

Andrea Vendrame 1pt win and 4 places @28/1 – 6th

Marco Frigo 1pt win and 4 places @40/1

Wout van Aert 1pt win and 4 places @40/1

Mattia Cattaneo 0.5pts win and 4 places @50/1

Georg Steinhauser 0.5pts win and 4 places @200/1 – 8th

Posted 2047 BST Fri 16th May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 8 Result

1st Luke Plapp (80/1)

2nd Wilco Kelderman (80/1)

3rd Diego Ulissi (33/1)

4th Igor Arrieta (250/1)