Tour de France 2025

Weather: Over 30˚C by mid-afternoon with a light easterly breeze.

Stage Type: Flat.

Climbs: Just the one small fourth-category climb (0.9km at 3.8%) taken inside the final 20km that should have no effect on the final outcome.

Start: Flat and rolling, favouring the bigger riders should any want to get up the road.

Finish: There’ll be a fight for position to take a roundabout 2.5km from the finish that they go all the way around. After that, straight over a couple more before the road curves gently to the right then to the left up to the line. Significantly, the road rises with about 1.2km to go and touches 5% before a final 750m of false flat averaging around 2%.

Stage suits: Sprinters.

Breakaway chances: Low. The sprinters will want their day, however, there will be fatigue in the peloton and plenty of teams haven’t yet got anything out of the race, so you never know.  

What will happen: A manageable break will be policed, pegged and brought back by the sprint teams to set up a bunch finish.

Stage 8 Contenders

Jonathan Milan (6/4; 2.5) has in theory the best leadout train but Consonni was absent on stage 3 and Milan was left on his own with 500m still to go. They’ll be looking to put that right here and the curving road in the final 1.5 kilometres allows for a good leadout to steal the racing line. If dropped off in front, the big man’s immense power on the uphill drag will make it very difficult for anyone to get past.  

Tim Merlier (9/4; 3.25) didn’t get much luck in running on stage 3 and had to work hard on his own to get to the front. However, he still had enough speed to come the long way around Milan for the win which was mighty impressive. Unlike, Milan, he hasn’t been competing for intermediate sprint points which may leave him fresher for this.

Biniam Girmay (10/1; 11.0) has had most of his team working for him in the intermediate sprints but, even on the uphill ones that should favour him, he’s been bested by Milan. A place looks the most likely.

Kaden Groves (16/1; 17.0) is deputising for the unfortunate Jasper Philipsen and what an opportunity for the Aussie – after nine grand tour stage wins at the Vuelta and Giro – to take his first win at the Tour. Mathieu van der Poel has had a tiring week but should still provide an excellent leadout on a rising finish that suits.

Jordi Meeus (18/1; 19.0) went down hard in the crash 2.5km out on stage 3. If he’s recovered from that, then he could compete but Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe may go with Danny van Poppel (33/1; 34.0) who won the Dutch nationals before the Tour and likes an uphill drag finish.  

Wout van Aert (20/1; 21.0) was off the front for a while on stage 7 and then helped Visma Lease a Bike into the final, so he’s starting to find his form, but he’s more likely to save himself for breakaways and mountain domestique duty than get involved in sketchy sprints.

Stage 8 Bets

This is a close call – the uphill finish favours Milan but Merlier looks to be a little faster – it’ll be all about positioning and a bit of luck in running. He’s kept his shoes cool since stage 3 and may just have Milan’s number – a second win for Tim Merlier.

Tim Merlier 1pt win @9/4

Posted 2132 BST Fri 11th July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 8 Result