Giro d’Italia 2025

Stage 1 – Durazzo (Durrës) > Tirana (Tiranë) (160km)

Fri 9th May | KM0 1330 CET

Profile

Follow on Bluesky https://bsky.app/profile/elpatroncycling.bsky.social

Stage 1 Preview

Where: After a postponement of the route announcement last November, rumoured to be due to political tensions centred around the handling of asylum seekers, it was finally confirmed before the turn of the year that the Grande Partenza for the 2025 Giro d’Italia would be across the Adriatic Sea in Albania.

The first of three stages begins in the coastal city of Durrës, before heading inland to the capital, Tiranë.

Stage Type: Hilly.

Weather: Around 20˚C and sunny but with a chance of rain later in the afternoon which isn’t ideal for the descents.

Climbs: A second-category climb (13.0km at 5.1%) in the middle of the stage could be used to deaden the fast men’s legs and the second pass up to Surrel (6.9km at 4.6%, max 13%) which peaks just 11km from the line is a good launchpad for attacks.

Start: Flat, which should mean a small break is allowed clear and tightly controlled.

Finish: A fast descent on wide roads off the final climb then, after flattening out, a 90-degree left-hander at 500m followed by a slight rise to the line.

Stage suits: Sprinters who can climb and puncheurs with a sprint.

Breakaway chances: Given that the stage winner will wear the maglia rosa, pretty close to zero, but a good opportunity for some to get ahead and compete for the first mountains’ jersey.

What will happen?: Visma Lease a Bike and Lidl-Trek will try to hold things together for a reduced group sprint. Others will fancy their chances of forging clear over the final climb.

Stage 1 Contenders

Mads Pedersen (9/4; 3.25) showed impressive form in Paris-Nice where he won a stage and was climbing better than some GC riders. He then won Gent-Wevelgem with a 70km solo attack and, but for an untimely puncture, could’ve challenged for the win at Paris-Roubaix. It’s difficult to see the former world champion not being in contention on stage 1.

Kaden Groves (9/2; 5.5) has had a less successful year and we haven’t seen him since he pulled out of the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya with knee trouble back in March. He’s proven at surviving tough climbs however and the Aussie has been there and done it.

Wout van Aert (7/1; 8.0) had by any standards a pretty good spring – second at Dwars door Vlaanderen and De Brabantse Pijl, and fourth at Ronde van Vlaanderen, Paris-Roubaix and Amstel Gold – but a monument win remains elusive and at 30, there’s a general feeling that Van Aert’s palmarès isn’t quite what his immense talent deserves.

More worryingly were those two near misses when his usually rock-solid sprint was bettered by first Neilson Powless (after a right royal mess-up by Visma Lease a Bike) and then Remco Evenepoel. Is it a sign that he’s lost some zip after suffering twice with horrific injuries in 2024? Or was he just a bit undercooked and will peak at the Giro, be as ridiculously good as ever and shut his critics up?

News also came after the team presentation on Wednesday that Van Aert has been struggling with a viral infection and been unable to train properly since Amstel Gold which, if it’s to be taken on face value, makes him somewhat unbackable despite the drift in price.

Olav Kooij (11/1; 12.0) is a second option for Visma Lease a Bike. Despite probably being the fastest man on the Giro startlist, Kooij is also a decent climber and may make the front selection which presumably would mean he can rely on Van Aert as his leadout. We haven’t seen him since he fractured a collarbone in Gent-Wevelgem a month ago but that should be enough time for him to recover. Kooij will be Visma Lease a Bike’s chosen man for the flatter stages but can’t be ruled out for this either.

Paul Magnier (12/1; 13.0) is on grand tour debut and this will primarily be a learning experience for the 21-year-old who seems destined for great things, especially in the classics. That’s not to say he isn’t ready now though with a win earlier in the year at Etoile de Bessèges followed by close seconds in Omloop Nieuwsblad and Le Samyn. It’s unlikely the young man will stay for the whole race, so if he’s going to win, it’ll be early.

Selected others

Andrea Vendrame (33/1; 34.0) will probably pop up with a win at some point during the three weeks as he did in 2021 and again last year though will have better chances on breakaway days later in the race.

Filippo Fiorelli (33/1; 34.0) is an excellent all-rounder, comes here off the back of great form at the Giro d’Abruzzo and could threaten the places if it got very selective.

Corbin Strong (33/1; 34.0) can climb and is fast on the line though his form this year has been solid rather than spectacular.

Tom Pidcock (40/1; 41.0) has the explosivity to try something on the climbs as well as excellent descending skills so can’t be discounted even though Pidcock himself pooh-poohed the suggestion he’d end the day in pink.

Milan Fretin (66/1; 67.0) has already won three times this year and the Cofidis man looks a little overpriced given he goes well in sprints at the end of tough parcours.

Stage 1 Bets

How selective is it going to get? Can the purer sprinters hang on and challenge or could even GC riders get in the mix? There doesn’t seem to be a consensus and of course depends on how it’s ridden, so we’ll have to watch to find out.

There are reasons to oppose some of the stage favourites as detailed above which leaves Pedersen as the obvious choice. The Dane, however, had a really tough spring program and may need time to build his form again. His price is plenty short enough too considering we haven’t seen anyone’s levels yet.

So instead let’s go in with the Soudal Quick-Step youngster Paul Magnier who used Eschborn-Frankfurt last week as a pipe-opener after a recovery period at home and is a rider very much on an upward trajectory – he just needs to hang on up the climbs!

It’s the first stage of a grand tour so is sure to be nervous, frantic and probably a bit dangerous – let’s hope everyone gets around safely.

Paul Magnier 1pt win @12/1

Posted 1742 BST Thu 8th May 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change