Tour de France 2025

Weather: A little overcast but dry with pleasant temperatures in the low 20˚Cs. A strengthening westerly breeze of around 20km/h, gusting to 50km/h will definitely have some interested in creating echelons in the more exposed areas, so sprinters and GC men alike will need to be vigilant.

Stage Type: Flat.

Climbs: Three fourth-category climbs are bait for the early attackers to battle it out for the first polka dot jersey but aren’t hard enough or close enough to the finish to affect the result.

Start: 40km of flat road before the first of those classified climbs.  

Finish: A left-hander with 1.5km to go before a straight, flat boulevard finish.

Stage suits: Sprinters.

Breakaway chances: Given that the stage winner will wear the first yellow jersey, pretty much zero.

What will happen: A manageable break will be policed by the main sprint teams who will ride to set up a bunch finish. The potential for splits in the crosswinds is the wildcard but it would be disappointing if any of the main protagonists miss out given that they’ll all be well aware of the danger points.

Stage 1 Contenders

Tim Merlier (13/8; 2.62) has won 10 times this year including twice recently at the Baloise Belgium Tour, so he’s the justified favourite. However, with Soudal Quick-Step’s team built mainly around Remco Evenepoel’s GC bid, Merlier really only has his close friend Bert Van Lerberghe for support. That’s nothing new though and the European champion has a knack for finding his way to the front even in the messiest of sprints.

Jonathan Milan (9/4; 3.25) tuned up at the Critérium du Dauphiné which had a tough parcours and therefore didn’t attract many pure sprinters. He got his stage win though and plenty of climbing in his legs which should help with durability over the next three weeks. Unlike Merlier, Milan is blessed with an excellent sprint train at Lidl-Trek – Jasper Stuyven, Edward Theuns and Simone Consonni – that should keep him near the front in the last few kilometres.

Jasper Philipsen (9/2; 5.5) has had an up and down year which was derailed somewhat by a bad crash during the spring classics season. He narrowly avoided another one in the opening stage of the Baloise Belgium Tour last month but fought back with a victory the next day – only his second of the season – showing his form is there. Philipsen will have Mathieu van der Poel as a deluxe leadout though the inclusion of fellow sprinter Kaden Groves in the Alpecin-Deceuninck line-up is an intriguing one – will he slot into a leadout position or float as a sprint saver in case things go wrong with the main man?

Jordi Meeus (18/1; 19.0) earned a late call-up after a sprint win at the Tour de Suisse, which he then left, before winning the Copenhagen Sprint a day later. He’ll have much stiffer opposition here but did spring a 40/1 surprise by winning on the Champs-Élysées two years ago. Newly-crowned Dutch road race champion, Danny van Poppel, is his excellent final leadout man at Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe.  

Biniam Girmay (22/1; 23.0) won three stages and the green jersey at last year’s Tour de France but this season has been a difficult one and so far, he’s failed to get his arms in the air. Girmay should at least be positioned well with a host of strong riders – Laurenz Rex, Hugo Page, Vito Braet and Jonas Rutsch – to help him.

Wout van Aert (25/1; 26.0) has been sick again, as he was prior to the Giro d’Italia, though this stomach bug doesn’t appear to have been anything too serious. But with stages that suit him better later in the week as well as question marks over his flat sprinting speed from earlier in the season, there’s no guarantee he’ll even take part in the flatter sprints, let alone win one, so enough to stay clear.

Dylan Groenewegen (28/1; 29.0) has won six Tour de France stages over the last eight years but doesn’t appear to be in that kind of form this season. He’s picked up three wins in lesser races in the last couple of months, but it would be a surprise if he challenged the top three in the market.  

Stage 1 Bets

What a treat to have the best three sprinters in the world up against each other and, to be fair, there isn’t a great deal between them. Before they can duke it out, however, there’s these crosswinds to deal with and if they hit hard then it could be carnage.

All being equal though we should see a bunch finish but as they come back into Lille all sorts of crazy risks could be taken – this is the opening stage of the Tour de France after all.

Often a flat, wide finish leads to a messier sprint which would favour Tim Merlier’s nous to make the right decisions at the right time. But on balance, I’d rather be on the side of a solid, dedicated leadout than leaving things to chance – Jonathan Milan to win stage 1 of the Tour de France.

Jonathan Milan 1pt win at 9/4 (3.25)

It was a half-decent Giro d’Italia (99.5pts staked; +23pts profit, including wins at 66/1, 20/1 and a 200/1 place) so let’s hope for more of the same or better here!

As always, the staking plan will be heavily weighted towards the second half of the race when more value will be on offer – there’ll be plenty of hit-outs at tasty prices on stages where the break has a chance of staying away. For now, low stakes, patience and a watching brief are required.  

Posted 1531 BST Fri 4th July 2025

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 1 Result